Pegasus Research Consortium

"Will a volcanic eruption destroy humanity? Scientists warn that world must begin preparing for explosive global catastrophe"?

This article says, "Scientists at the European Science Foundation estimate there is a 5-10% probability of a large explosive volcanic eruption by the end of the century". This article also says, "Experts have called upon world leaders to spend £2 billion a year to monitor volcanic activity and to increase the ability to respond".

We all know about the "for most of history" destruction/devastation of volcanic eruptions - but I do wonder about the true course of this news release - Is it actually about making ways for being more prepared and more ready around the Earth when one of these eruptions occcurs, or..........is it simply a way of supporting the spending of people's money at the tune of 2 billion pounds ($2.95 Billion) more per year??

This is an interesting read, with a fair amount of related information!

By RICHARD GRAY FOR MAILONLINE

PUBLISHED: 05:17 EST, 15 April 2015 | UPDATED: 08:53 EST, 15 April 2015

The world is woefully unprepared for a massive volcanic eruption that could kill millions of people and destroy much of modern society, a leading group of scientists have warned.

In a new report on the risks posed by natural disasters, experts at the European Science Foundation concluded that large volcanic eruptions posed the greatest risk human survival.

They calculated that there is between a five to 10 per cent probability of an explosive eruption large enough to cause huge numbers of deaths, alter the climate and poison the atmosphere occurring by the end of the century.

Such an eruption would be of a similar size to the explosion of Tambora on Sumbawa, Indonesia in 1815, which killed around 100,000 people at the time. The ash cloud thrown out from this eruption reached more than 26 miles (43km) into the atmosphere and triggered temperature changes that led to widespread famine and epidemics.
The summer following the Tambora eruption is known as 'the year without summer'.

The scientists warn, however, that rising population levels and increasing reliance on global travel could mean the impacts of a similar eruption could be far more severe.

Writing in their report Extreme Geohazards: Reducing the Disaster Risk and Increasing Resilience, the experts warn that there needs to be an international response to prepare for such a disaster and to monitor for similar events.

More: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3039652/Will-volcanic-eruption-destroy-humanity-Scientists-warn-world-begin-preparing-explosive-global-catastrophe.html

I wonder if a magnetic reversal would trigger the volcanos.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIayxqk0Ees

I keep saying Ranier is going to go and take out Seattle.   Or maybe Yellowstone will go and take out the middle of the continental USA.

Shasta

I do worry about the Yellowstone super volcano.  When that baby blows, a large swath of America and Canada will be unliveable.  The ash ejecta will have world wide impact.

A good little site to feed your natural and man made disaster fears.

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php

(Volcano info about 4/5ths the way down.)

But doesn't that mean the odds against the probability of volcanic eruption causing world extinction is 90 to 95%?

Quote from: Dyna on April 15, 2015, 06:33:32 PM
I wonder if a magnetic reversal would trigger the volcanos.

There are records of previous reversals found in lava flows.
http://phys.org/news202971192.html

Quote from: WarToad on April 20, 2015, 03:03:13 PM
I do worry about the Yellowstone super volcano.  When that baby blows, a large swath of America and Canada will be unliveable.  The ash ejecta will have world wide impact.

A good little site to feed your natural and man made disaster fears.

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php

(Volcano info about 4/5ths the way down.)

I forbid Yellowstone to go off until after July of this year.  I want to at least get in my vacation there.

Shasta

I posted another video on Yellowstone here somewhere...

What I found interesting is that the Magma Bubble under Yellowstone MOVES

Well to be more correct  the plate OVER the bubble moves.  The result is that what they first thought were separate volcanic events are really  a chain of calderas as the tectonic plates move across the hot spot.

I just found a graphic that shows this with dates

(http://vikan7science.weebly.com/uploads/1/2/9/5/1295708/8968396.jpg)

This is the current hot spot 

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_n896VWrgUtc/TMYjiFzbtPI/AAAAAAABTRc/BIPvBQ5AIo4/s1600/560px-Yellowstone_Caldera.svg.png)

For size perspective and showing where the geysers come from...

(http://www.dailygalaxy.com/.a/6a00d8341bf7f753ef01b8d1087b5a970c-pi)

Quote from: Dyna on April 15, 2015, 06:33:32 PM
I wonder if a magnetic reversal would trigger the volcanos.

Possible as the pole flip is thought to be caused by the iron magma core flipping over. Those stresses could trigger a big one...

But it seems more likely the tectonic plate movement is responsible.

Take Japan for example

When the plates in Japan 'jumped' we got that mega quake and tsunami. Many blamed HAARP :P but below is the subduction zone that is Japan

(http://www.earthobservatory.sg/files/project/images/Tohoku2-bloc_diagramme_japan_earthquakes.jpg)

So Japan rides over top, and the seabed dives beneath back into the magma pool.  It got stuck,  snagged, but the pressure just built up. When it released Japan literally jumped 8 feet east while the plate beneath slid 33 meters west. It was that movement that caused the wave. It also shifted the planet by a measurable degree

Mt Fuji sits on the junction of THREE plates That is why Tokyo has DAILY quakes of around 4.0  EVERY day

(http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/22edbe53c8b1.png)

Here is the IRIS record of quakes in Japan above 4.0  You will see several almost daily.  Imagine living day to day with everything shaking, never knowing when the next big one will hit


DATE and TIME (UTC)    LAT     LON     MAG     DEPTH
km   DIST
km     LOCATION MAP   
   (Click to show on interactive map)       EVENT ID
  (Click to explore)
11-APR-2015 07:45:12   41.08   142.86   4.6   40   184   HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION     5110104
12-APR-2015 04:33:16   38.29   141.83   4.5   50   236   NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5110185
12-APR-2015 06:25:15   36.41   138.82   4.6   147   574   EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN     5110189
12-APR-2015 10:28:46   35.51   141.20   4.4   39   518   NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5111835
12-APR-2015 19:25:01   37.15   143.82   5.3   11   277   OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5110482
13-APR-2015 14:37:48   30.77   141.66   4.7   8   1008   SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5110585
13-APR-2015 16:56:29   37.11   141.42   4.3   34   356   NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5110591
13-APR-2015 18:51:03   39.71   143.65   4.9   10   25   OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5110578
15-APR-2015 19:55:00   39.32   143.60   5.2   10   45   OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5110756
15-APR-2015 20:16:50   38.39   142.16   4.5   49   207   NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5110761
16-APR-2015 07:38:49   36.65   140.96   4.5   42   422   NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5110795
16-APR-2015 20:36:25   30.40   142.83   4.6   29   1032   SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5110860
18-APR-2015 05:01:13   43.34   147.33   4.5   60   499   KURIL ISLANDS     5113190
18-APR-2015 23:02:08   36.34   139.91   4.1   80   509   EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN     5111248
18-APR-2015 23:14:34   36.93   135.36   4.2   351   806   SEA OF JAPAN     5111049
19-APR-2015 12:06:36   30.47   142.79   5.3   10   1025   SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5111095
19-APR-2015 14:08:11   45.49   142.10   4.0   309   667   HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION     5111107
19-APR-2015 22:03:51   30.45   142.62   4.5   27   1029   SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5112888
20-APR-2015 01:42:27   36.03   139.43   4.2   68   563   EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN     5112198
20-APR-2015 14:55:23   46.56   151.33   4.4   106   975   KURIL ISLANDS     5111210
20-APR-2015 22:01:40   33.34   139.19   4.3   199   818   SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5111238
21-APR-2015 07:33:00   46.27   152.87   4.8   49   1035   KURIL ISLANDS     5111263
21-APR-2015 16:35:37   46.37   152.89   4.9   60   1043   KURIL ISLANDS     5111319
21-APR-2015 18:40:44   46.27   152.94   4.7   48   1039   KURIL ISLANDS     5111305
22-APR-2015 04:00:58   44.39   148.22   4.1   72   636   KURIL ISLANDS     5113061
23-APR-2015 07:01:35   46.16   152.94   4.4   39   1030   KURIL ISLANDS     5113324
23-APR-2015 12:23:42   41.92   142.26   4.5   54   290   HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION     5111493
23-APR-2015 14:31:40   45.74   142.10   5.0   304   695   HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION     5111501
24-APR-2015 01:48:53   30.50   142.59   4.3   11   1024   SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5112404
24-APR-2015 02:59:41   35.96   139.50   4.4   99   565   NEAR S. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5112896
24-APR-2015 07:37:52   36.46   142.85   4.6   35   366   OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5111556
25-APR-2015 06:35:45   32.85   140.45   5.3   77   817   SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5111809
26-APR-2015 03:38:33   40.32   141.57   4.0   99   215   NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5113304
27-APR-2015 01:51:26   45.98   151.00   4.2   137   910   KURIL ISLANDS     5112893
28-APR-2015 17:49:52   43.18   145.72   4.5   79   421   HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION     5112145
29-APR-2015 16:09:52   40.08   142.77   5.2   40   110   NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5112270
29-APR-2015 21:40:03   44.35   151.42   4.4   10   810   EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS     5112304
01-MAY-2015 16:56:42   40.95   143.11   4.8   36   161   OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5112480
01-MAY-2015 17:47:57   40.98   142.97   4.4   45   170   NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5112497
02-MAY-2015 16:50:46   31.59   140.17   5.7   32   957   SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5112563
03-MAY-2015 04:02:52   37.49   141.52   5.0   42   318   NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5112597
03-MAY-2015 06:53:59   36.02   139.92   4.6   52   535   EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN     5112604
03-MAY-2015 14:30:16   36.14   138.73   4.9   146   600   EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN     5112626
04-MAY-2015 17:04:27   39.64   143.93   4.1   46   0   OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5112764
07-MAY-2015 20:29:26   43.28   141.62   4.0   179   448   HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION     5113127
08-MAY-2015 12:11:29   31.22   142.04   4.8   10   952   SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5113192
10-MAY-2015 16:54:42   31.17   141.93   5.3   7   959   SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5113374
10-MAY-2015 17:08:15   31.16   142.06   4.8   10   958   SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5113376
10-MAY-2015 17:14:31   31.13   141.97   5.1   10   963   SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN     5113378

http://ds.iris.edu/seismon/

So as you can see in the subduction graphic, the live volcanoes are related directly to the tectonic plate activity,  As the plates move it triggers the eruptions.

Japan had several eruptions around and before the big quake

(http://www.earthobservatory.sg/files/project/images/Tohoku2-bloc_diagramme_japan_earthquakes.jpg)

Alaska has the same problem  mostly along the Aleutian Island chain, which is in fact a row of active volcanoes  The Aleutian Islands are a chain of 14 large volcanic islands and 55 smaller ones belonging to both the United States and Russia.

(http://www.aeic.alaska.edu/graphics/akseis.gif)

Now California is a different situation. Because as you can see below it is nt a subduction zone, rater a lateral zone (Oregon Washington and Vancover are subductiion) you would not get a Tsunami generated that could wipe out California

To create a tsunami you need the motion associated with a subduction jump, the 'sloshing effect' like pushing a bowl of water.  Besides the epicenter needs to be off shore. Most of the San Andreas fault in on land along the coast so any shock wave would move outwards to the sea not inland from the sea

(http://i.livescience.com/images/i/000/065/639/i02/san-andreas-map.jpg)

Can California fall into the Sea?

Well.... it seems to be separating from the mainland :P

(http://sandradelcasale.weebly.com/uploads/2/5/0/7/25074755/7666602.jpg)

And we know that a lot of the fault is actually huge water filled caverns. (The submarine tunnels, the sinking of the City of Long Beach, the huge subsidence of the San Joaqiun valley, etc)

(http://cdn.zmescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/san-andreas-fault.jpg)

But it would only slice off the prime real estate :P  along this red line

(http://birdchan.com/images/san-andreas-fault.jpg)


(https://emsnews.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/san-andreas-runs-between-two-houses.png)

QuoteTo create a tsunami you need the motion associated with a subduction jump, the 'sloshing effect' like pushing a bowl of water.  Besides the epicenter needs to be off shore.

I did read about an area off shore, Or or Ca can't remember the exact location near the border i think, it is a HUGE slide area, it has been shown to have a regular interval of slides and this would create a large tsunami.

Quote from: Dyna on May 21, 2015, 08:40:09 PM
I did read about an area off shore, Or or Ca can't remember the exact location near the border i think, it is a HUGE slide area, it has been shown to have a regular interval of slides and this would create a large tsunami.

yes Oregon  Look at this map I posted above  You can see where the San Andreas fault veers off  Oregon is a subduction zone

(http://i.livescience.com/images/i/000/065/639/i02/san-andreas-map.jpg)

Interesting LOL We were talking of this region and today there are a series of quakes along it and one in Nevada California border  a 5.4 just a little while ago

http://ds.iris.edu/seismon/

(http://ds.iris.edu/seismon/views/eveday//imgs/zmMap.eveday.N_Pacific.gif)

22-MAY-2015 18:48:14   36.13   -116.90   4.1   45   CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER
2-MAY-2015 18:47:43   37.30   -114.70   5.42   19   SOUTHERN NEVADA
22-MAY-2015 07:40:46   43.47   -127.05   4.2   10   OFF COAST OF OREGON    
22-MAY-2015 02:53:00   38.43   -122.26   4.3   9   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA    
21-MAY-2015 16:56:45   59.50   -136.44   4.1   14   SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA    
21-MAY-2015 03:15:29   33.16   -115.65   4.0   1   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA