The robots are here — and you should be worried
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According to an Oxford University study, 47% of US jobs could be automated within one to two decades.
It's no surprise that technology is getting better, faster, and smarter. But is it at the expense of its makers?
Anxiety has been building around the second machine age and its implications for our economic future, and it may have reached a tipping point.
Just last week, Silicon Valley venture capitalists and executives published an open letter on the digital economy, calling for public-policy changes and new organizational models to account for this era of drastic technological change.
The authors write, "The digital revolution is the best economic news on the planet."
But not everyone agrees. Several scholars have been sounding the alarm on the danger of technological progress.
During a presentation at the Carnegie Council for Ethics and International Affairs this week, researcher Wendell Wallach said technology is now destroying more jobs than it creates.
"This is an unparalleled situation and one that I think could actually lead to all sorts of disruptions once the public starts to catch on that we are truly in the midst of technological unemployment," said Wallach, a consultant, ethicist, and scholar at the Yale University Interdisciplinary Center for Bioethics.
Martin Ford, a software developer and Silicon Valley entrepreneur, recently published the book "Rise of the Robots" in an effort to generate a conversation around the prospect of a jobless future.
We're not worried enough, he says. Most people don't understand the "mind-boggling" speed that technology is advancing at.
"When people talk about robots, they're mostly imagining factories, but the factory jobs have been gone for decades," Ford tells Business Insider.
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In May, Shenzhen Evenwin Precision Technology, a manufacturing company based out of Dongguan in southern China, announced it would soon be replacing 90% of its 1,800 employees with machines. The 200 employees not receiving pink slips will take on a new role — overseeing the robotic workforce.
This is part of a larger trend in southern China, where robots are poised to invade several manufacturing companies.
If that isn't unsettling enough, consider the Oxford University study, "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerization," which predicts that 47% of US jobs could be automated within one to two decades.
It's no longer just the "dangerous, dirty, and dull" jobs on the block. Technology is also poised to replace white-collar positions, like lawyers, reporters, and financial analysts, to name a few.
While certain sectors, such as healthcare and education, are safer than others for the time being, Ford believes most industries will eventually be at risk.
But it's not as much about what industry you work in, Ford explains, as it is the function you perform. Think about your job, he says, and consider whether or not any smart person could figure out how to do it if they watched you work or studied your past work patterns.
If so, then it's a pretty good bet that an algorithm will eventually be able to figure it out as well, he warns. "If you look far enough into the future, say 50 years and beyond, there aren't any jobs that you could say absolutely for sure are going to be safe."
With creative computing underway, even the most artful of jobs could be at risk. Algorithms can now write symphonies and paint original paintings, Ford tells us.
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"We should be concerned," says Ford. "Primarily because we don't have an alternate for people to lose their jobs.
"I'm not arguing that the technology is a bad thing. It could be a great thing if the robots did all our jobs and we didn't have to work. The problem is that your job and income are packaged together. So if you lose your job, you also lose your income, and we don't have a very good system in place to deal with that."
The economic consequences could be dramatic, he says. Jobs drive consumption, and consumption drives our economy.
"Without consumers, we're not going to have an economy. No matter how talented you are as an individual, you've got to have a market to sell it to," Ford says. "We need most people to be OK. We need some reasonable level of broad-based prosperity if we're going to continue to have a vibrant, consumer-driven economy."
Of course, what Ford sees as a disaster, others see as an opportunity. The New York Times recently highlighted a study by the McKinsey Global Institute that presents a more cheerful outlook.
"By 2025, McKinsey estimates, these digital talent platforms could add $2.7 trillion a year to global gross domestic product," the Times wrote. "And the digital tools, the report states, could benefit as many as 540 million people in various ways, including better matches of their skills with jobs, higher wages, and shorter stints of unemployment."
Other experts point to the Industrial Revolution, which ultimately led to more employment opportunities, and say the same will happen during the second machine age. Some believe an increase in computing prowess will simply eliminate old jobs and introduce new ones, resulting in a net-zero effect — or even an increase in jobs.
However, Ford doesn't believe the past will predict the future in this case. "On January 2, 2010, The Washington Post reported that the first decade of the 21st century resulted in the creation of no new jobs. Zero," he writes in "Rise of the Robots." "In other words, during those first 10 years there were about 10 million missing jobs that should have been created — but never showed up."
The solution to this job displacement is not a simple one.
In the past, when low-skilled workers lost their jobs to technology, the conventional advice was to go to school for a better education and training and find more intellectual work in an office. This solution will no longer be effective, Ford says, because technology is coming after those higher-skilled jobs as well.
Robots are invading the service sector, where most of our jobs are.
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"Investment in education and training will unlikely solve our problems. We must look beyond conventional policy prescriptions," says Ford.
His solution is a radical one: To effectively restructure our entire system.
Ford suggests a guaranteed income.
"You give people a minimum — a survivable income. Not something so generous that they just sit around and do nothing, but you give them enough so they don't have to worry about basic survival," he explains. "Some people would be lazy, but most others would want more and would work part-time, start small businesses, or work a more traditional job if they could find one."
Ford is not the only one proposing such extreme changes.
Scott Santens, a leader in the basic-income movement — a worldwide network of thousands of advocates — agrees that job growth is not keeping pace with technology and encourages government-provided income as a remedy.
"It's not just a matter of needing basic income in the future; we need it now," Santens told The Atlantic. "People don't see it, but we are already seeing the effects all around us, in the jobs and pay we take, the hours we accept, the extremes inequality is reaching, and in the loss of consumer spending power."
It's unlikely Ford and Santens' proposal would become a reality, at least any time soon. "In today's environment, such a radical solution is completely unthinkable," Ford admits. "But the paradox is that it's ultimately what we're going to need in the future. It's unclear how we're going to get there."
For now, it might be time to consider strategies for staying ahead of the robots before they come for your job.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/robots-worried-120000777.html
Seems that when the steam shovel was invented, many were heard
saying that it would put 100 men with shovels out of work..worked out
pretty well so far..
rubicon
They will kill us all... just look what they are teaching them. :o :P
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3XyDLbaUmU
I know of two hospital pharmacies that tried replacing tech positions with a robot. They went back to using techs.
Shasta
Imagine a pack of these chasing you...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdBJNhhBlmE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdBJNhhBlmE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lGTk1nefQM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lGTk1nefQM
meanwhile the Geeks in Japan want to replace WOMEN :P
Give them 10 more years tops
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C9XBQmlGbo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C9XBQmlGbo
Just add the Silicon Life Form :P over the frame...
(http://i.imgur.com/Bo4aKgN.png)
and get the facial expression right...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkpWCu1k0ZI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkpWCu1k0ZI
(http://media.sdreader.com/img/photos/2013/08/29/Screen_Shot_2013-08-29_at_11.53.14_AM_t330x600.png)
So is THIS one a Real Doll or a Real Girl pretending to be a Real Doll :P
(https://sociorocketnewsen.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/doll1.jpg)
I thought the Stepford Wives weren't popular anymore. I want a Stepford husband!
Shasta
Edit to say sorry the pic were large and only part of them copy and pasted here..i guess I need a robot to figure out how to decrease the photo size...sigh
in my area near pgh. pa. this is a big deal anymore with the high school robot contests televised
http://www.theverge.com/2015/6/8/8745143/darpa-robotics-challenge-winner-pictures
Transforming robot crowned the winner of DARPA's Robotics Challenge
Two-day finals in California saw robots wielding drills and driving cars
By James Vincent
on June 8, 2015 11:13 am
?@jjvincent
A South Korean team has won the $2 million top prize at the finals of DARPA's Robotic Challenge (DRC) with a transforming bipedal bot that can scoot around on wheels in its knees. The winning design from Team KAIST managed to navigate DARPA's obstacle course in under 45 minutes, successfully completing eight natural disaster-related tasks including walking over rubble, driving a car, tripping circuit breakers, and turning valves.
The DRC was set up after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, with the aim of accelerating the development of robots that can respond to man-made or natural disasters. Twenty-three teams competed in the finals, with a dozen entering from the US, and the rest traveling from countries including Germany, Italy, Japan, and Hong Kong.
The teams had been developing their robots for more than two years and have tried the challenges before. However, while previous trials gave the robots 30 minutes to complete each task, the two-day finals — staged in front of thousands of spectators in California — pushed the teams to complete all eight in less than an hour. Only three robots managed to successfully tackle them all, and the rest, well, they fell down a lot.
"What did people do every time a robot scored a point? They cheered!"
"These robots are big and made of lots of metal, and you might assume people seeing them would be filled with fear and anxiety," said the event's organizer Gill Pratt in a press statement. "But we heard groans of sympathy when those robots fell. And what did people do every time a robot scored a point? They cheered! It's an extraordinary thing, and I think this is one of the biggest lessons from DRC — the potential for robots not only to perform technical tasks for us, but to help connect people to one another."
Although Team KAIST took home the top prize, second place (and $1 million) went to Team IHMC Robotics, who used the Atlas robot built by Google-owned Boston Dynamics. Third place and $500,000 went to Team Tartan Rescue from Carnegie Mellon University, who finished with the top score at the end of the first day but were eventually overtaken.
"This is the end of the DARPA Robotics Challenge but only the beginning of a future in which robots can work alongside people to reduce the toll of disasters," said DARPA director Arati Prabhakar in a press statement. "I am so proud of all the teams that participated and know that the community that the DRC has helped to catalyze will do great things in the years ahead."
All photos by Mark Ralston and Chip Somodevilla. Image credit: Getty Images
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Team NEDO-JSK from Japan carry off their JAXON robot on a stretcher.
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The Walk-Man robot from the University of Pisa in Italy lives up to its name by walking through a door.
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Team Valor's semi-autonomous ESCHER robot hits the dirt during its first run.
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Team RoboSimian from NASA's Jet Propulsion Labs climbs out of a car during the driving task.
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Team NimbRo Rescue's robot uses a power tool to cut through a piece of drywall
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CHIMP considers its options during the same task.
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Members of the Carnegie Mellon University-NREC Tartan Rescue team celebrate after their CHIMP robot earns the top score on the first day of the trials.
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Team KAIST's winning DRC-HUBO robot gets to grip with some cables.
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Fans pose with the successful DRC-HUBO after its winning run.
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The Pepper robot gives a child a hug at one of the many sideshows at the Robotics Challenge.
(https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/l67TKuFCHh4f6wswhVfzH5VsT2E=/1020x0/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/3769138/GettyImages-476142848.0.jpg)
The Running Man Atlas robot operated by Team IHMC Robotics strikes a victory pose after completing the course.
(https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/n_r1OZzUU-V9Hj21nZ_I-0toIY8=/1020x0/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/3769140/GettyImages-476142850.0.jpg)
And swiftly falls over. ;D 8)
team kaist video at the link
Quote from: space otter on June 09, 2015, 06:36:28 PM
Edit to say sorry the pic were large and only part of them copy and pasted here..i guess I need a robot to figure out how to decrease the photo size...sigh
The robot will automatically reduce images in the forum unless they are REALLY huge (its a small bot that works for free :P )
{img}picture url here{/img}
to set the image size manually.. add this
{img witdth=640 height=480}picture url here{/img}
The max width for good forum viewing (the default robot setting) is 640. The height would be dependent on scale. HUGE images take forever to load in the forum and drive the robot crazy
Crazy robots are BAD :P
In this case I also norice that the reason may be that the image URL has copyright tracking codes included in the timage name and an https address (secured) These are Getty images You can see that in the image link below
https: // cdn1.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6GEwZ0E8Kc0GT7tAkgL48Vv0KuU=/1020x0/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/3769086/GettyImages-476043344.0.jpg
Don't forget that hot linking those large images you are stealing their bandwidth
I'm sure we can all see what direction pornography and prostitution are going. A friend of mine wants to work on engineering in that direction. And I'm talking about a guy with brains here. :o
Well after the last 10 years wife da wife I can see the appeal of a robot girlfriend
Bwhahahahahaha
(http://www.jeremyriad.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/real-life-barbie-doll.jpg)
Oh wait... that one is a real girl wanting to be a doll :P
Quote from: zorgon on June 10, 2015, 01:20:53 AM
Oh wait... that one is a real girl wanting to be a doll :P
What would be the psychological name for this type of mental condition?
Geppetto's Syndrom?
Women have had this one nailed since Neolithic times.
(http://photos.gograph.com/thumbs/CSP/CSP994/k15767020.jpg)
Tonight, my poor tired brain read this thread title as "The Idiots Are Here..." I find that more worrisome than robots.
Shasta