Back in 2000, the CIA made 8 predictions on what life would be like in 2015.

[astr0144]

Back in 2000, the CIA made 8 predictions on what life would be like in 2015.



The CIA's 2000 report guided George W. Bush.

Back in 2000, just before George W. Bush became president, the CIA published a 70-page report on what the world would be like in 2015.
We're now halfway through the year and it turns out that several of these predictions were on the money.

Here's a rundown of some of the predictions, according to a December 2000 story from The Telegraph.

"International affairs are increasingly determined by large and powerful organizations rather than governments." Verdict: True, such as the rise of the Islamic State. On the other hand, there is also a new cadre of actors that cross the line between private actors and the state such as the Chinese hackers suspected of stealing information about millions of U.S. government employees, and the possibly-not-North Korean hackers who took down Sony last year.

"Between now and 2015 terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties." Verdict: Definitely true. Sadly, this prediction became true quickly, on September 11, 2001.

"Iraq and Iran [will] develop long range missiles in the near future. Iran ... could be testing such weapons by as early as the coming year, and cruise missiles by 2004." Verdict: Both true and false. Iran is definitely working on an ICBM and was expected to test it in 2015. But international sanctions on Iran has brought it to the negotiation table and diplomats say they are close to a comprehensive deal.

"The world population will grow by more than one billion, to 7.2 billion." Verdict: True. The world population is now about 7.3 billion.

"Energy resources will be sufficient to meet demand." Verdict: Nailed it. U.S. oil production has soared in recent years, and the US is poised to become a major exporter of liquefied natural gas in the coming years, too.

"China's economy will grow to overtake Europe as the world's second largest but still behind the United States." Verdict: True-ish. By some measurements, China's economy is now larger than the US economy but by other measures, it is not quite as large as the EU.

"Europe will not achieve fully the dreams of parity with the US as a shaper of the global economic system." Verdict: Not quite true. The CIA report was very bullish on the European economy, which had been sluggish at the start of the year, but has recently picked up steam.

"Aids, famine, and continuing economic and political turmoil means that populations in many [African] countries will actually fall." Verdict: False. Africa's population rose from 800 million in 2000 to 1.1 billion in 2014.



http://finance.yahoo.com/news/back-2000-cia-made-8-160525763.html

[zorgon]

Perhaps their predictions were accurate because they instigated them

[astr0144]

From some of the things that we may have investigated and seem to have uncovered on PRC...

I don't think that I would disagree !

Perhaps their predictions were accurate because they instigated them

[ArMaP]

There are some interesting things on that article, specially the way they wrote what looks like quotes from the CIA but that do not exist in the report.

"International affairs are increasingly determined by large and powerful organizations rather than governments." Verdict: True, such as the rise of the Islamic State. On the other hand, there is also a new cadre of actors that cross the line between private actors and the state such as the Chinese hackers suspected of stealing information about millions of U.S. government employees, and the possibly-not-North Korean hackers who took down Sony last year.

One of the cases where the supposed quote doesn't exist. The closest I could find was this:

States will continue to be the dominant players on the world stage, but governments will have less and less control over flows of information, technology, diseases, migrants, arms, and financial transactions, whether licit or illicit, across their borders. Nonstate actors ranging from business firms to nonprofit organizations will play increasingly larger roles in both national and international affairs. The quality of governance, both nationally and internationally, will substantially determine how well states and societies cope with these global forces.

"Between now and 2015 terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties." Verdict: Definitely true. Sadly, this prediction became true quickly, on September 11, 2001.

Same thing, this was the closest thing about "mass casualties".

Export regimes and sanctions will be difficult to manage and less effective in controlling arms and weapons technology transfers. The resultant proliferation of WMD and long-range delivery systems would be destabilizing and increase the risk of miscalculation and conflict that produces high casualties.

"Iraq and Iran [will] develop long range missiles in the near future. Iran ... could be testing such weapons by as early as the coming year, and cruise missiles by 2004." Verdict: Both true and false. Iran is definitely working on an ICBM and was expected to test it in 2015. But international sanctions on Iran has brought it to the negotiation table and diplomats say they are close to a comprehensive deal.

Part of it exists on the report, the second sentence about Iran testing cruise missiles by 2004.

Iran sees its short- and medium-range missiles as deterrents, as force-multiplying weapons of war, primarily with conventional warheads, and as options for delivering biological,
chemical, and eventually nuclear weapons. Iran could test an IRBM or landattack cruise missile by 2004 and perhaps even an ICBM or space launch vehicle as early as 2001.

"The world population will grow by more than one billion, to 7.2 billion." Verdict: True. The world population is now about 7.3 billion.

More or less correct, this is what the report says:

World population in 2015 will be 7.2 billion, up from 6.1 billion in the year 2000, and in most countries, people will live longer.

"Energy resources will be sufficient to meet demand." Verdict: Nailed it. U.S. oil production has soared in recent years, and the US is poised to become a major exporter of liquefied natural gas in the coming years, too.

More or less true, the report says:

Despite a 50 percent increase in global energy demand, energy resources will be sufficient to meet demand; the latest estimates suggest that 80 percent of the world's available oil and 95 percent of its gas remain underground.

"China's economy will grow to overtake Europe as the world's second largest but still behind the United States." Verdict: True-ish. By some measurements, China's economy is now larger than the US economy but by other measures, it is not quite as large as the EU.

I couldn't find anything like the above.

"Europe will not achieve fully the dreams of parity with the US as a shaper of the global economic system." Verdict: Not quite true. The CIA report was very bullish on the European economy, which had been sluggish at the start of the year, but has recently picked up steam.

The full quote from the report:

Europe will trail the United States in entrepreneurship and innovation as governments
seek ways to balance encouragement of these factors against social effects. Thus, Europe will not achieve fully the dreams of parity with the United States as a shaper of the global economic system.

"Aids, famine, and continuing economic and political turmoil means that populations in many [African] countries will actually fall." Verdict: False. Africa's population rose from 800 million in 2000 to 1.1 billion in 2014.

I couldn't find this on the report. The closest I could find was this:

The perpetuation of poor governance and communal conflicts in a region awash with guns will generate frequent natural and manmade humanitarian crises, precipitating international humanitarian relief efforts.

[astr0144]

I had not read or studied in any detail as yet...

but nice find if that's the original CIA report they refer to.

and one wonders why the article does not fully match the actual report. !

There are some interesting things on that article, specially the way they wrote what looks like quotes from the CIA but that do not exist in the report.

[ArMaP]

and one wonders why the article does not fully match the actual report. !

Yes, and where did they got the "8 predictions".

[The Seeker]

and one wonders why the article does not fully match the actual report. !

I believe that tactic is called spin, dis-information, and propaganda to feed the masses...


seeker

[astr0144]

That's one suggestion Seeker...

I suspect few readers would have actually searched for the actual report itself and read it like ArMaP to even try to check how the article and report may compare..

Even then...is the report designed to do the same...

I think both Article and report have some true facts to them..maybe with some dis info.

or maybe both are just created with the aim of being   fodder as you may be suggesting to feed the readers.

I believe that tactic is called spin, dis-information, and propaganda to feed the masses...


seeker

[zorgon]

and one wonders why the article does not fully match the actual report. !

NASA says.... "blah blah life forms yackity schmackity"

You see that posted and click on the article to see if NASA really said that and you find
There is no reference to ANY official NASA report or quote that is claimed

UFO SITE says:   A lab did a scientific study on the DNA of the Star Child Skull  proving it is not human.

Which lab? Where is the DNA report? Can I get a sample to send to an independent lab?


A well know scientist says:  Blah blah blah this report is fact!"  WHAT scientist? What has he done?

People will simply believe ANYTHING if you start your spiel with "Some Important Monkey says"  and add what ever you want. NO ONE will double check, and rarely will anyone download the info

[space otter]

NO ONE will double check,


well almost no one 

[hoss58]

NASA says.... "blah blah life forms yackity schmackity"

You see that posted and click on the article to see if NASA really said that and you find
There is no reference to ANY official NASA report or quote that is claimed

UFO SITE says:   A lab did a scientific study on the DNA of the Star Child Skull  proving it is not human.

Which lab? Where is the DNA report? Can I get a sample to send to an independent lab?


A well know scientist says:  Blah blah blah this report is fact!"  WHAT scientist? What has he done?

People will simply believe ANYTHING if you start your spiel with "Some Important Monkey says"  and add what ever you want. NO ONE will double check, and rarely will anyone download the info

I could not agree more Ron ... big thumbs up from Hoss and a gold star [grin]