US Stock Market ...Could it be about to decline again !

[astr0144]

After some study of the US Stock Market indexes....ie  The Dow Jones
and S&P500...

It is often said stock market cycles repeat.

In September 1929...The US Stock market indexes went on to have a huge decline and it fell into July 1932...

Back then compared to price values of today... the Price Values were small. 

Eg  The high price made on 3rd September 1929 IF I recall was about  386......The bottom of the market made a low price of about 41...

The Initial large decline fell 50% of its 384 high value at that time within a few months..and made a low of about 192 If I recall around 13th or 30th November 1929...( cannot recall exact date at the moment)

This went on to rally back up about 62% of its price range to about  16th April 1930 ... ie for about 5 months...It then declined for over two years....and if I recall it took 25 years to recover back up to the 384 level that was the All time high back then..

Many experts say History repeats in the Markets. One Known expert was called W.D Gann...and it was said that  he made a fortune in his lifetime trading the markets.

He did suggest often when stock markets crash that they make an initial sharp decline to about 50% of their all time highs. and then re rally between 50 to 70% to form a secondary main high before declining
again..only often by much further than that of the initial leg..

In 1929 this 1st decline (or 1st leg decline) occurred with just under 3 months... about 72 days

in October 2007....the Dow Jones stock market index made a new all time high ( If I recall ) of about 14197   ( close to 14200)

It went onto decline over 50% of its all time high..to a low price value of about 6470...around March 6th 2009

It has since rallied for just over 3 years...

WD Gann used a timing method to determine time cycles in the markets.

If you compare the two scenarios of the 1929 and 2007...The price ratio comparisons for rallies and declines vary.. as the market in 2007  was at a much different higher price level. for eg in 1929 the market initially fell 50% of its all time high at that time...in 2007, its initial main decline was about  54.5%..

The time was about 512 calandar days for the 2007 decline...
in 1929 its initial decline was about 72 days..

This is about a 7.2% ratio in time difference.

The rally since the low made in March 2009 is following a similar time pattern to that of the low made in 1929 to its next 2nd main lower high made in April 1930 in terms of time.. that had been about 154 calendar days.. This was before it went on to decline much more severely into 1932..

The 1929 to 1932 crash had declined about 88% from its 384 high.

Since March 2009 low the market has rallied about 1109 calender days.

if we compare the time ratio of the Nov 1929 low to its 2nd lower high made in April 1930...that was 154 days..

( ref to the 7.2 time ratio)

154 days  x 7.2 = 1109 calendar days

again...
Since March 2009 low the market has so farrallied about 1109 calender days.


Could we be about to see the start of a 2nd big decline similar to that from April1930 to July 1932....that had been 814 calendar days..over 2 years..

Only this may be 7.2 times longer...over 14 years..

My own study suggests if this may happen that the present market  could start its next decline any time....Between March 19th/20th/22nd
and  or April 9th/12th or 16th 2012..

I thought that we may see a new 2012 high today or 20th March...and I am looking for a price of either 13300/13333  or 13500 on the Dow Jones...and 1414 or 1440 on the S&P 500

If It continues higher after April then my analysis is probably wrong...and the markets may well maintain a rally...

Wars often rally markets...so that is one concern that I have if the US invade Iran..or WW3 should start as Alex Jones believes.
He is also suggesting Oil Prices may double in 2012..

I am not sure what may happen if Oil Prices surge and Nukes should occur...

So far the Stock markets have rallied with Oil price hikes, yet you would think high oil prices would decline the Stock markets..

[astr0144]

These videos are from Alex Jones about the financial state of the economy....and what it could be like within 6 months or so.

I think he hits on some very disturbing points..

So Far my analysis would agree..


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHwv4vIYVlg&feature=plcp

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-We3cLMffo&feature=plcp

[Littleenki]

Good work, Astr0144! Im not a market analyst by far, but it seems to me the only way we will stop using oil will be to have a world wide war, which will devastate the middle east, and make the area uninhabitable. We then will be forced to shift to another form of energy, although it will be quite painful.

Will the market continue to rally? Probably not, but we shall see.

Alex Jones thinks the world will end every morning when his shoes hit the floor, and he hasnt been right much in the past, but this time he might be stating the obvious.

As far as the Bilderbergs meeting last week, it's odd how the market stabs up a bit after those guys get a dose of hope for their agenda, but soon if Jones is right, they will be paying the ultimate price for their evil.

I wonder what the first sign will be...martial law, food crisis, health scare?
Thats what these folks do, is to create an enemy of mankind, and then act as if they are saving us from it. Maybe if they share some of that money we will all be just fine, and we wouldnt need a market anymore..nah, were all doomed!

Bill Gates? Im afraid of his brain aside from everything else, and he brings the dough to the breadboard, doesnt he?

Cheers!
Le

[zorgon]

So say I had a few hundred bucks to play with...

Any hot tips?   

[Littleenki]

So say I had a few hundred bucks to play with...

Any hot tips?   

You could go to the copyleft thread, and buy one of those extra vowels!;)
le

[astr0144]

Hi Little Enki,

See my comments below in yellow.


Good work, Astr0144! Im not a market analyst by far, but it seems to me the only way we will stop using oil will be to have a world wide war, which will devastate the middle east, and make the area uninhabitable. We then will be forced to shift to another form of energy, although it will be quite painful.

So far my analysis has worked out reasonably well as I suspected with the Dow & S&P topping out either in price or within or close  to my timing dates...The Dow topped at 13338 with one of my targets being 13333....5 points on the Dow today is very minor.
The Dow went on to fall about 1338 points at one point...But
The Markets however have rerallied back up over 40% of the recent decline. I think the next month will test if it will decline further or not...I have a couple of important dates in mind that may see another reversal.. For Now...IF the Dow breaks back above 13000  it will become concerning for sellers, and ar retests 13333 after the end of this month.. would make me expect the market to remain strong.

With regards to Oil Prices and your comments on Oil....Maybe one would expect any sign of War will see it maintain its rally..
For us To stop or reduce our use of oil ...The destruction of the Middle East  you would think your comments may well effect the demand and sky rocket prices so high, no one would want to buy it......Is this a plan that they have in mind ?   I seem to recall seeing something along these lines...where the USA may be out to do just that...BUT that The US have huge supply of their own oil that is unknown to the majority

Will the market continue to rally? Probably not, but we shall see.

Alex Jones thinks the world will end every morning when his shoes hit the floor, and he hasnt been right much in the past, but this time he might be stating the obvious.

I am not sure with your comment with regards to  Alex Jones.
It depends what you are referring to...and maybe ones opinion.
He has been right in quite a few things and he often claims that he is....but on certain things his timing may well be out.
He often has other so called Experts who make their comments and relates to them also.  He has been right so far on the European crisis IMO...as one European country after another has proven to run into financial difficulty.  Its hard to say of some other issues...like health related stuff without having a background in it..
but he has often made us aware of things like what he claims the globalists are trying to do to threaten us, be it poisoning our food and water, or creating vaccines and viruses..If what he says is true I have to applaud him for that.

As far as the Bilderbergs meeting last week, it's odd how the market stabs up a bit after those guys get a dose of hope for their agenda, but soon if Jones is right, they will be paying the ultimate price for their evil.

Yes the markets have rallied since their meeting...

Alex Jones is saying that they plan to destroy the worlds economy and as I suspect bring the stock markets down...if this is true it does tie in with my expectation of seeing a bear market.
IF they succeed in doing this...they will be the ones that benefit financially..and not the masses. I would suspect if this is the case that They will be trying to make it look like they are recovering the markets...but will create something to happen to decline them again.

IF the Stock market crashes over the coming years, millions of us will be put into poverty..and many will loose a lot of their assets and savings....This would become back like the 1930s..

The REAL TOUGH issue with something like this is the decisions one takes...Like if one is holding stocks and shares or financial assets inc Pensions and morgages, bonds ,ISAs etc...if the markets clapse....these assets may loose a lot of value....
So the question becomes what can one do to protect them..
or what actions can be done to try and prevent being caught in the storm....Doe one Chance selling or closing out these assets..
or find a way to hedge them..


I wonder what the first sign will be...martial law, food crisis, health scare?


The signs at the moment with the Euro crisis..may well be a major warning... Alex Jones claims the US has /is preparing for Martial Law now with the FEMA camps they have created and the training of its forces and Police...Commodity food prices have been rising


Thats what these folks do, is to create an enemy of mankind, and then act as if they are saving us from it. Maybe if they share some of that money we will all be just fine, and we wouldnt need a market anymore..nah, were all doomed!

I agree thats what I am led to believe they often do when the time is right..and if the markets clapse most of us will be doomed.

Bill Gates? Im afraid of his brain aside from everything else, and he brings the dough to the breadboard, doesnt he?


I really find it hard to believe what Alex Jones says about him.
After all he has done for mankind..( which he appears to have done )  if hes now wanting to help kill a large % of us off...one wonders how this has come about...Alex Jones does say that the Globalists have helped fund some of the Billionaires to aid their own agendas...That I can only try and decide upon from Alex Jones performance on does he prove to be right in his past advice
or knowledge that he has passed on.

Cheers!
Le

[astr0144]

Hi Zorgon,

IF and I say IF.....the stock market has topped out  between March and May for this year..and maybe for some years to come.

IF I believe I could be highly certain about this...then depending upon your financial situation and your experience or abilities in understanding certain things about Financial markets...

I would have some suggestions for you..

BUT  If I gave them to you and it went wrong...it would make me look and feel bad...

I can offer my own thoughts on what I believe is likely to happen.

IF I prove right it could save ones assets if I crisis was to continue and occur...

If I prove wrong..you may regret my advice.

I could offer some lower risk suggestions.. if you did want to consider it further...

IF you were to trade the Stock or futures market for eg..
you can make profits on falling markets if you know what to do and if you do the right thing at the right time.

IF you had sold the Dow for eg from my last post at a level of 13333... that went on to decline upto about 1333 points...

There are some finance companies around that allow you to trade the markets at a $ or more a point... which if you sell at a $ and the market makes a move of 1000 points...up or down in which direction that you choose....you would have had the chance to make a $1000...just on a $ trade...

In that eg you would have sold and the market fell over a 1000 points.

IF you had traded it at $10 or $100 a point... then the potential is there to make $10000 or $100,000 on that 1000 point decline on the Dow...

This is higher risk trading....and you do need to place a set fee in ones account to be able to do this.

IF the $ trade went against you by a 1000 points... you would lose $1000.....BUT you can place whats known as a stop loss...
This takes you out of the trade if you prove to be wrong and reduces ones risk.

IF you had placed a stop loss at say 20 to 50 points away..
then your risk is relatively small...some traders place a stop 10 points  away...some a 100 or a 1000 points away, this depends upon ones account size , abilities and belief  in what they are doing.

Then there are what are known as options...these can be very low risk assets and vary in how you can use them...One methods  allow you to make big profits when markets make quick large moves...for a small stake...BUT these opportunities do not occur very often..  The recent decline on the Dow from May 1st to June
4th....was one of those opportunities.

That type of trading is high risk and not suitable for many.

But if you get it right you can profit quickly.

So say I had a few hundred bucks to play with...

Any hot tips?   

[rdunk]

Because more than one has mentioned this here:

FWIW - Just a little FYI - one thing everyone should decide to accept, for what some are wishing for is absolutely not going to happen, unless everything is pretty much wiped out on Earth. And what is not going to happen is --- stopping the use of oil. No, not for a very long long time, if ever.

Most of the various infrastructure of the world is dependent in some fashion on the use of oil. Almost everything you touch is dependent upon the use of oil in some way. So, from a personal sanity standpoint, it would be better to just accept that as fact, and deal with other things that might also need paradigm changes for the improvement of man and the Earth.

You cannot fly commercial  airplanes on battery power. You can't run 18 wheelers on battery power. You can't run locomotives on battery power - other than very light rail, with direct hook-up to electrical. Most military vehicles can't be run on battery power. Most ocean going ships cannot be run on battery power.

And on and on and on. At this point in life, with current technology, and with long-term equipment life, it is a bit of a pipe dream to even wish for stopping the significant use of oil within in even a few generations, if ever. 


So for personal "sanity", why not 'wish" for something more likely - like peace in the middle east, maybe?? And I would not make a wager which of these might happen first, as both go "completely against the grain" relative to the realities in place.

All my opinion of course!

[astr0144]

This is a video from Gerald Celente who is a Market analyst adviser who I believe is quite good at offering a good overall fundamental view of the USA and World wide view  economy and what is likely to happen if the Euro crisis is not sorted out.  He is interviewed by Alex Jones.

 


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYO-Rsi4dgc&feature=plcp

[astr0144]

Rdunk,

Good post with regards to oil...

I am not fully clear what you are referring to when you say

"one thing everyone should decide to accept, for what some are wishing for is absolutely not going to happen,"

Is this to refer that a replacement is unlikely to happen in the near future...

Unless I have misunderstood..I have not as yet studied in detail the proposed replacement that as I understand that the " Pegasus Alternate Energy Team" have as an alternative replacement...or other  similar alternative energy  research  experts who may have discovered / created an alternative.

If they have, then I do not see why in theory that this could not quickly replace the use of Oil relatively quickly similar to how Electricity replaced gas lamps within ones lifetime.

I do however understand that they would be up against severe opposition from those who have a huge vast interest in Oil including World Governments and Oil companies and anything associated with them.



-------------------
Because more than one has mentioned this here:

FWIW - Just a little FYI - one thing everyone should decide to accept, for what some are wishing for is absolutely not going to happen, unless everything is pretty much wiped out on Earth. And what is not going to happen is --- stopping the use of oil. No, not for a very long long time, if ever.

[astr0144]

This is my update on the Dow Jones index..

So far the market is looking stronger than I expected..From my cycle analysis.. it is make or break until my next main strong expected cycle around August 21st /22nd....

Looking at what the Dow Jones has done so far...

It has broke above the 13050 higher level that I had in mind and has still maintained its rally into today the 7th August. It has now hit 13200...

I have strong intermediate two time signals in today...  ( about 13.00 and 14.30 EST )

I will say that they both are expected Lows...But I await to see if they inverse...IF my MAIN LONG TERM signal is in today.. ( a day later that I was expecting....)

Price wise we could see the March to May 13333 highs retested  if the market continues higher....

It will be disappointing for bear sellers if the market continues with a strong bullish rally after today and above 13333 level...

My next strongest signal is between August 21st / 22nd...

[Cosmic4life]

So say I had a few hundred bucks to play with...

Any hot tips?   

Wait for the next time Goldman Sucks plunge the Gold market and then buy.......rinse and repeat as per Goldman Sucks.

C..

[astr0144]

Dow Jone has topped last week and earlier today around 13225...

The high came in so far on an overnight session on August 9th..on the 24 hour Futures market index..

But the High for the Cash market which most traders are familiar with came in on August 6th...what I had indicated that I was looking for..


It has been going sideways for 3rd / 6th August and 13th today between a range of 13225 to 13087...

I have a strong signal coming in any time in the next 30 minutes to an hour..
14.30 to 15.00 hrs EST New York time.. IF it forms a high I would hope to see a big sell off... maybe to the end of this week... It needs to break below 13087 to suggest a top has come in for this week...

[astr0144]

Since my last post the Stock market continued to remain strong upto September /October with the Dow Jones topping around 13660 level.

After my last timing signal did not work as well as I had expected, I shyed of from posting further updates and other signals, although I did have further ones that did come in. Since the Sept / October highs, the market went on to fall into November 15th..it since rerallied back up into last week, but has not made new highs above last years high.

I have some further expected strong cycles come or coming in this month that I expect as another High...with another due in end of March / to mid April....

This post is a prediction made by a famous financial astrologer who has made some good calls in the past....that agrees with my own analysis...

I believe that we have either just seen another recent high or will do within the next 2 weeks if last weeks high is broke...

I believe this will start to see the market decline for many months if not years to come...

http://moneymorning.com/2012/07/30/planets-align-for-stock-market-crash-in-2013-if-not-sooner/

[Cosmic4life]

Well now the Dow is over 14000 and the FTSE is doing very well thank-you too.
Is it so strange ??  the Rich have been getting richer year on year...they have to put it some-where because Tax-Haven bank accounts are no longer the safe place to hoard illicit wealth.
Doe's that mean that the stock market won't crash again...nope.
Just that the wealthy are running out places to hide cash.

C...