US Stock Market ...Could it be about to decline again !

[zorgon]

Well they can send it to me... I will hide it for them

Mwhahahahaha

[astr0144]

The Cycles that I had seem to have inversed the way that I was suspecting... with a HUGE upwards move occurring since my last post of about 700 points on the Dow from 13300 to 14000 in less than a month...    Inverses are a common thing when trying to do cycle analysis... One may be best trading both ways at times if they can use options. but its a very tricky business with no certainties..

For me this is make or break... either we see a reversal any time or as long as the all time highs hold ( within next 2 months)...or if we break to new highs.. chance are longer term it will remain bullish..

This is my updated report....

Well... The US Indexes have somewhat amazed me...

I never expected to see the Dow back up at the 14,000 level and the S&P 500 back up to over 1500 for some time...But they have !

My last main signals (some reacted close )seem to have reversed and the marketsrallied.

So what from here...

The S&P500 is very close to a triple top and the Dow is about 200 points away from a double top or a new all time high..

I have been experimenting with some new cycles... and I have found 3 of them came in very accurate since October 2012..

So I intend to include them if I can when I write along with other longer term ones that I post.

Price wise... I have numerous resistance points coming from various past lows since the lows around 12500 last year..and one from the Low in November 2011..that hit between 14000 to 14070...

I did have other timings for the 30th/31st January that so far have remained bullish.... but now my resistance is being met and I would certainly expect a sell off any time...

I have good cycles in today , and between the 13th to 17th February..

Other good cycles that I am looking at come in late March to Mid April...

I will add more if I need to or find ones that I think that I have overlooked..

I really cannot believe that he USA Indices have rallied so high again.. and if they continue to new highs... It will be very hard to say if a Triple top could form on the S&P500 with the 3rd top making new highs before a major reversal again...or if the market is just going to continue on rallying and remain bullish..

This makes things harder to remain bearish....

After seeing the Dow crash in 2007/2008 so severe... I really did think we would see a similar pattern form to that of 1929 where it attempted a rally but failed to break above the 2007 top..and that it would slowly decline back below the 2009 low...

[astr0144]

March Update...

After breaking my expected resistance levels of 14000/14070..The Dow has maintained its rally to hit 14150 very close to the October 11th 2007 all time high.

Since my last post, I had indicated that I had possible cycle in between Feb 13th / 17th...I had overlooked a US Holiday that was in on the 18th...and the Dow has maintained its move up until February 28th.
On the S&P 500 however that made a High on Feb 19th /20th...

So what from here and whats the next cycles that I am looking for ?

No doubt being so close to previous All time highs...its very hard to say..

BUT I have the following cycles coming in for March..With another expected strong long term cycle that I have in mind.

IF the Dow holds below last weeks or the Oct 2007 high...we could still see another Main High form...that Id expect a strong sell off if it comes in as a high..

March 6th ( Around 14.33 pm EST )

March 10th/11th ...I am particularly interested in as Its a very long term
cycle. ( This is also when the Clocks will change in the USA for Spring )

March 16th..

March 25th another expected Long term strong cycle.

I have Other suspected strong cycles come in between early to mid April.

The S&P 5oo index certainly has formed an interesting Triple top formation...and the Dow has made a Double top...

So this may be a hard level to break.

IF last weeks top holds throughout next week..
I believe if we see a low form on March 10th /11th that this could see a strong rally break through previous all time highs.

[robomont]

Google paul b farrell.read his articles.the little guy doesnt stand a chance.

[astr0144]

April Market update...

The Dow & S&P 500 have now made new All time highs...
The Dow having done so since March 5th & the S&P 500 index on April 10th 2013..

I did think that if the Dow broke its previous 2007 all time high of 14197 that we may see resistance at 14400..

With ref to the last main cycles that I indicated in my last March post....March 11th did not seem to react ...BUT March 25th came in as a low that have took the markets to new all time highs..

The early April cycle that I had in mind came in as a low on April 5th..
My next strong April cycle/s that I have in mind is today April 11th to 12th 2013..

This is maybe the last main cycle that I have for some time..
I do have others between April 21st to 26th...But I expect this next two days as most important..

Price wise...Resistance between 14866 to 15100...

On the S&P500...1600 to 1620 at a guess..

The S&P500 is still on a triple top with its present new all time highs being the highest...

I have to say that I never thought that we would see new highs and it is very hard to say what will happen from here.

Many are led to believe that the world economy is in a very poor state and yet we have seen new stock market highs...

If its as bad as they say... we would still expect the markets to crash...MAYBE it could still do so and take many by surprise, buts its far to difficult a conclusion to make after seeing new highs..

After April ... Next Strong cycles I have for time being will be  May  11th to 16th.. but more likely June 10th

[zorgon]

How will this effect Gold and Silver?

So far prices have been dropping 

Gold is $1557.00 and Silver 27.70  down from a high of $1898.00 and $45.00

Seems all the preditions of it sky rocketing were WRONG

I knew I should have dumped it last year 

[robomont]

the only real way i know to see the if the market readings is correct is look at the real inflation.
in 2000 the dallas paper had a ten page employment section.its now just two pages.yet the market has a new high? i will not trust these market numbers.these numbers are inflated due to dollar inflation.
which means no real profit in investing in the market.just break even.
then you add in broker fees and now your losing.

the minor blips are the gulf war babies buying cars.the next real blip is 2020 with the next bubble of kids.this is the date of the next big war supposedly.
if it wasnt for the weather destruction in the country.the economy would be on life support.

[robomont]

things i would not invest in.
anything japanese .
american stocks.

all that leaves is metals and land.
as the gullible buy stocks,metal prices will drop.
land prices have stabilized so its almost time to invest in it.
local banks stocks may be a secure investment.
ge just bought lufkin industries ,an oilfield supply company.that means they are looking for secure no growth companies.the oilpatch is not growing.but its stable and secure.

[Pimander]

How will this effect Gold and Silver?

So far prices have been dropping 

Gold is $1557.00 and Silver 27.70  down from a high of $1898.00 and $45.00

Seems all the preditions of it sky rocketing were WRONG

I knew I should have dumped it last year 

My mother has been buying gold too.

She has got some bargain jewellery for next to nothing off ebay.  I think a lot of it is worth more in scrap prices that she paid.

[robomont]

gold will continue to drop as the stock market rises.
when the next bubble pops in the stock market.people will run back to gold.
pre 1984 pennies are a secure longterm investment.as they are copper and the treasury is hinting at discontinueing.canada just did.
nickels want be far behind and the older ones are high silver so they are a real good longterm investment as theyre metal value will exceed there posted 5¢.
as electronics continue to be the worlds top priority.the value of copper and silver will stay in demand and as long as obama keeps releasing 85 billion a month in cash.metal prices will continue to climb.
gold is too fickle because of its demand compared to the reliable industrial standards.
imho.

[robomont]

just an off the wall guess on silver and gold would be not much more of a drop.
a 999 pure silver coin was 25$ five years ago.from china or us mint.
so the bottom must be close.

[Pimander]

I was considering silver as an investment due to rising demand.  How good are silver reserves for mining?  I'm wondering how likely it is that silver "production" will rise dramatically.

[astr0144]

Hi "Z"

I called the bottoms in the Gold market to the very day & price back in end of the 1990s early 2000...

But unfortunately I had no money to invest 

It took several years to rise but once it did it had a huge rally.

I have not kept up detailed analysis of gold since..

If I have time I will try and take a look at it...but the top so far came in some time ago...

For me since the Stock markets made new highs.. the markets are not doing what one would expect so things are tricky...

one would think if stock market crashes Gold will rally !

If stock market  maintains rally ...It may well decline..

Try and speak later... I have a nightmare problem that I am having to deal with ...

How will this effect Gold and Silver?

So far prices have been dropping 

Gold is $1557.00 and Silver 27.70  down from a high of $1898.00 and $45.00

Seems all the preditions of it sky rocketing were WRONG

I knew I should have dumped it last year 

[robomont]

im thinking they are recovering 6million pounds or tons from a ship but i know of no other big finds or mines opening up.from what ive seen silver gets eradict when gold goes crazy.
when the magazines sell silver coins then is the time to sell.those guys have a better handle on the market.ive seen adds for the last three months.about the time the stock market started getting hot.

[zorgon]

Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why

Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.

Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of "disappointing performance" in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.

In the latest filing for Buffett's holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in "consumer product stocks" by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.

With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett's apparent lack of faith in these companies' future prospects is worrisome.

Unfortunately Buffett isn't alone.

Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulson's hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.

Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.

So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?

After all, the stock market is still in the midst of its historic rally. Real estate prices have finally leveled off, and for the first time in five years are actually rising in many locations. And the unemployment rate seems to have stabilized.

It's very likely that these professional investors are aware of specific research that points toward a massive market correction, as much as 90%.

One such person publishing this research is Robert Wiedemer, an esteemed economist and author of the New York Times best-selling book Aftershock.

Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why