Worsening Weather, Earthquakes, Vortices, Volcanoes, CMEs ... What's Up?

[thorfourwinds]

[thorfourwinds]

[/

Sept 12, 2018
Hurricane Florence is now expected to slow down and turn south after making a roaring landfall along the East Coast, a forecast that could have dire consequences for South Carolina, meteorologists said Wednesday.

Florence is a mammoth, Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph. It is expected to reach the Carolinas early overnight Thursday, and more than a million people have been ordered to evacuate coastal areas.

"Latest models show a ridge building over eastern U.S. slowing down Florence near our coast, stalling, then moving into South Carolina," the National Weather Service in Wilmington, North Carolina said. "Impacts will still be felt far away from the center of storm, and uncertainty still exists regarding magnitude of impacts in our area."

The office warned that Florence "will likely be the storm of a lifetime for portions of the Carolina coast."

The slowdown could mean 20 inches of rain or more in some areas, along with an extended period of high winds that could take down trees and power lines.

Unfortunately, that slight move south now puts us in jeopardy, as we are high up in the mountains at the NC/GA line. Say, SW of Charlotte towards Atlanta, Floods not a worry here.

We postponed our early response to the North Carolina coast until Friday or Saturday. We still have our reservations at the Baymont Wyndham.

We are also working with and supporting *America's Cajun Navy*. To volunteer for assisting in the Carolina's, call 833-872-2586, John Billiot, President.

As of Wednesday morning:

I live on the border of GA/NC, "under that "L" with the circle'.   

[thorfourwinds]

Over a Dozen Nuclear Reactors in Path of Hurricane Florence

[thorfourwinds]

They Just Ran A Simulation of a CAT 4 Hitting The Middle East Coast

[fansongecho]

Stay safe Thor , and I hope the Hurricane degrades massively before it reaches landfall over there guys' - I will be thinking of you later today.

[The Seeker]

Stay safe Thor , and I hope the Hurricane degrades massively before it reaches landfall over there guys' - I will be thinking of you later today.

Florence did degrade  it was a Category 2 this morning with winds of 110 mph; the storm itself had increased in size to around 390 miles across, but the resultant drop in wind speed means a lot; as of now (3pm eastern) winds are 105 mph

looking at the live radar, it does appear to be diminishing 

[petrus4]

looking at the live radar, it does appear to be diminishing 

Cyclones or hurricanes are a lot like lightning, in the sense that their formation requires an extreme polarisation and conflict of hot and cold air currents.  I believe that this is why they form in coastal areas, and also why they tend to dissipate when they move further inland; the temperature of the air becomes more uniform, and so they can not maintain cohesion.

I suspect that this increased polarisation of air currents, may also have a fractal or symbolic correspondence with the similar, current state of politics among American humans.  As above, so below.

[Sgt.Rocknroll]

Florence did degrade  it was a Category 2 this morning with winds of 110 mph; the storm itself had increased in size to around 390 miles across, but the resultant drop in wind speed means a lot; as of now (3pm eastern) winds are 105 mph

looking at the live radar, it does appear to be diminishing 

Same thing with Katrina. It was a 5 but by the time it hit Plaquemines Parish, it was a 2 and quickly degraded.

[ArMaP]

I believe that this is why they form in coastal areas, and also why they tend to dissipate when they move further inland; the temperature of the air becomes more uniform, and so they can not maintain cohesion.

I may be wrong, but I think they form over hot areas of the ocean and lose strength when they find either some physical obstacle (like a mountain) or cold air.

[space otter]

live storm cams
the sound is  very loud for some - be ready


http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/09/13/as-hurricane-florence-nears-live-surf-cam-videos-show-impact-on-carolinas.html

[space otter]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/wonder/massive-iceberg-breaks-from-greenland-glacier/vi-BBNy7BQ


Massive iceberg breaks from Greenland glacier
Duration: 01:36 6 hrs ago


Reuters
Massive iceberg breaks from Greenland glacier
Duration: 01:36 6 hrs ago

Time-lapse video shows a four-mile wide chunk of ice breaking away from the Helheim Glacier in Tasiilaq, Greenland, a rarely documented event called calving. Rough Cut (no reporter narration).

Vid at link much  or you tube

[space otter]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/new-research-shows-the-world%E2%80%99s-ice-is-doing-something-not-seen-before/ar-AAAF3CR?li=BBnb7Kz


The Guardian
New research shows the world's ice is doing something not seen before
John Abraham  4 hrs ago

In this warming world, some parts of the planet are warming much faster than others.  The warming is causing large ice bodies to start to melt and move rapidly, in some cases sliding into the ocean. 

This movement is the topic of a very new scientific study that was just published in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters.  The Arctic is warming much faster than other parts of the planet and the ice there is showing the signs of rapid warming.  This fact has serious consequences. First, melting ice can cause sea levels to rise and inundate coastal areas – it also makes storms like hurricanes and typhoons more destructive.  Melting ice also causes a feedback loop, which can cause more future warming and then more ice loss.

It should be noted that there are different types of ice.  Some ice floats on water and is called sea ice.  When it melts, the ocean water level hardly budges because the ice is already in the sea displacing liquid water.  But, sea ice is really important for this feedback loop I mentioned above.

Other ice is on land and may be a large ice sheet or a smaller glacier.  These ice bodies sit atop the land and "rest" there.  In some cases, they extend out off the land and into the ocean where they partly float on liquid water.  When this land ice melts, the liquid flows into the oceans and can cause significant ocean level rising.

So, the importance of ice depends on what type it is, where it is located, and how fast it is melting. And this brings us to the new paper.

The researchers looked at a type of high latitude glacier in their study.  These glaciers hold enough water to cause about 1 foot (about a third of a meter) in sea level rise. Typically, they exist in cold and dry areas, where snowfall is limited.

How do glaciers move?  Well really by either sliding over the underlying bedrock or surface that they sit on, or by deforming and stretching under their weight. The colder glaciers tend to move by the deforming and stretching process.  Glaciers that have wetter and more temperate regions involve more sliding.  But regardless of how they move, these glaciers, particularly the glaciers that have both cold and temperate parts, experience surges in their motion.  These surges are short duration times where the glacier moves a lot.  During a surge, ice is redistributed from one part of the glacier to another region.

The authors in this study observed such a glacier surge.  It happened at an outlet glacier that is mainly of the "cold" type in Russia.  At the Vavilov Ice Cap on October Revolution Island, the authors find it "is undergoing extraordinary acceleration and thinning but displays no previous evidence of surging."  The authors write,

the 300-600 meter thick 1820 square kilometer Vavilov Ice Cap is frozen to its bed over the majority of its area, apart from a region along its western margin where basal sliding is potentially important for faster flow.

In 2010 the ice in the region began to accelerate and the next year, crevasses were observed that matched the patterns of ice acceleration. The researchers were able to watch this surge in ice motion in real-time using satellite images. They could track the motion and show the incredible speed of flow.

What caused the rapid motion? This is an important question because if the motion is caused by human warming, we can expect the behavior to be repeated elsewhere as temperatures rise.  Importantly both air and ocean-water temperatures could be a factor.  One potential cause is surface meltwater.  The top of the ice can melt, and liquid water then can flow downwards, into the ice through cracks and holes.  This flowing water can precondition the ice for rapid motion.

This fact may be a contributing cause to the motion.  Basically, the melted water lubricated the ice/ground interface causing more sliding and more friction.  The friction caused some of the bottom ice to melt and released more liquid water, and a cycle had begun.

The researchers also took measurements of elevation to better understand areas where ice was becoming thicker or thinner.  In addition, they studied the forces that exist within the ice itself to help elucidate the cause of the increased speed. Obviously, this is an evolving area of study and all of the questions have not yet been answered.  However, I was impressed when I read that even though these types of surges are becoming more common, what the researchers observed in Russia was still unique.  They describe the rate of ice loss at Vavilov as "extreme." The authors also point out,

It is startling that the Vavilov Ice Cap, until recently, an apparently stable ice cap with an almost entirely frozen bed that is almost entirely above sea level, is able to rapidly discharge such a large proportion of its ice in the ocean over such a short period.

So, to answer the question, how fast is it moving?  In 2015, it reached speeds of up to 82 feet in a single day. It currently is sliding 15–35 feet a day. For comparison, that is much faster than the average 2 inches per day we would see with no surge events.

The takeaway message is that once we thought these large bodies of ice responded slowly to changing conditions.  But this research shows us differently.  It shows that ice sheet can move quickly and once we pass a threshold, they may be hard to stop.  This finding makes it more crucial for us to slow down global warming before it's too late.

[thorfourwinds]

HURRICANE MICHAEL

DAVE, CALL ME.
Rooms available here at the Baymont Wyndam, available at my First Responder price.
678-725-1523

[space otter]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climatechange-lawsuit/u-s-government-but-not-trump-can-be-sued-over-climate-judge-idUSKCN1MP2F8

OCTOBER 15, 2018 / 3:57 PM / 25 DAYS AGO
Tina Bellon

U.S. government, but not Trump, can be sued over climate: judge says

(Reuters) - A group of young Americans suing the federal government over lack of action to fight climate change can proceed with their lawsuit, but U.S. President Donald Trump cannot be named as a defendant, a federal judge ruled on Monday.

The decision by U.S. District Judge Ann Aiken in Eugene, Oregon, came before the case is scheduled to go to trial in federal court on Oct. 29.

Twenty-one children and young adults, who were between 8 and 19 years of age when the lawsuit was filed in 2015 against the Obama administration, accused federal officials and oil industry executives of violating their due process rights by knowing for decades that carbon pollution poisons the environment, but doing nothing about it.

Aiken said the case revealed a delicate balance of power between the judicial and other government agencies. The judge said those concerns were not enough to warrant a dismissal of the entire case, but she concluded that the inclusion of Trump as the sitting U.S. president violated the proper separation of powers.

The original lawsuit had named President Barack Obama as a defendant. After Trump took office, the lawsuit was amended to instead name Trump as a defendant.

The lawsuit still includes the heads of other U.S. agencies. The names of the heads of those agencies were also amended with the change to the Trump administration.

The potentially far-reaching case is one of a handful seeking to have courts address global warming and its causes.

The U.S. Justice Department said it was reviewing Monday's decision and in a statement called the lawsuit an unconstitutional attempt to control the entire country's climate and energy policy through a single court.

A spokeswoman for the plaintiffs did not return a request for comment on Monday's decision.

The federal government in a court filing on Friday asked the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to halt the case while it is seeking review by the U.S. Supreme Court.

The plaintiffs say in the lawsuit that extreme weather events, such as flooding, caused them emotional trauma and damage to their health, safety, cultural practices, food security and economic stability.

The government argued those injuries are widespread environmental phenomena affecting all other people on the planet and said the issue did not belong in court.

The federal defendants also contended that letting the case proceed would be too burdensome, would unconstitutionally pit the courts against the executive branch, and would require improper "agency decision-making" by forcing officials to answer questions about climate change.

Aiken in her Monday decision rejected those arguments, saying the plaintiffs had offered extensive expert declarations to link their injuries to fossil fuel-induced climate change.

She also said there was sufficient evidence that government actions, such as coal leasing, oil development and fossil fuel industry subsidies, led to the children's injuries.

Reporting by Tina Bellon; Editing by David Gregorio and Leslie Adler

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

................................

really long article  but worth the read

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/midterms-democrats-attorney-general-climate-lawsuits_us_5be5f199e4b0e8438897aa58

11/10/2018 08:00 am ET
By Alexander C. Kaufman

Wins By Democratic Attorneys General Threaten To Multiply Climate Suits Against Big Oil

The oil and gas industry's expensive victories in the midterm elections could come at a price.

Democrats scored a string of state attorney general victories on Tuesday night, ousting loyal oil and gas allies and threatening to add to mounting lawsuits against the industry over climate change.

The party flipped four states and held 13, re-electing incumbents in seven of them. in an election sweep that secured Democrats 27 states that represent over 58 percent of the U.S. population and 63 percent of the nation's gross domestic product. The top-cop posts are considered the "most effective way" to challenge President Donald Trump's environmental agenda.

During the Obama administration, Republican attorneys general became a fearsome opposition force, coalescing around legal challenges to landmark power plant, health care and water regulations. The new Democratic majority comes as the party's rising stars are already jockeying to make names for themselves by sparring with the Trump administration.

The sweep Tuesday comes as climate change-related litigation at the city and county levels is finally making landfall in state capitals, with two states now suing oil companies and another charging ahead with an investigation that's likely to lead to a third lawsuit.

Rhode Island became the first state to sue the industry directly in July. The Ocean State named 14 oil and gas behemoths and their subsidies in a historic suit accusing the firms of creating a public nuisance under state law by failing to warn the public and regulators of warming and sea level rise the companies knew would result from increasing emissions.

Last month, New York's acting attorney general sued Exxon Mobil, alleging that the nation's largest oil company defrauded investors by obscuring the risks its business faced due to climate change and regulations to mitigate it.

The newly elected Democratic attorneys general in those states are expected to continue the suits.

But the seats that flipped blue could threaten an industry that notched big wins on Tuesday night after spending more than $100 million to successfully tank three ballot measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

In three states, the industry lost key allies.

Democrat Dana Nessel in Michigan routed her GOP opponent Tom Leonard, the state representative handpicked to replace outgoing state Attorney General Bill Schuette, who in September filed an amicus brief backing Exxon Mobil and calling climate change "unsettled science."

In Wisconsin, Republican Attorney General Brad Schimel, who stormed to Exxon Mobil's defense in October, fell to Democrat Josh Kaul. The former prosecutor painted Schimel as a corporate stooge who "put the interests of polluters ahead of" the Badger State.

Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt began quietly deploying his state's legal resources to fight New York's investigation of Exxon Mobil two years ago. Not only did he lose his bid for governor to Steve Sisolak on Tuesday, but Democrat Aaron Ford also edged out Laxalt's heir apparent, Wes Duncan, in the attorney general race.

Mile-High Standards

article continues at link

[space otter]

totally unreal  they are probably the ones still thinking the earth is flat
sigh
they drained the swamp alright..no intelligent life left

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/white-house-federal-climate-change-report-not-based-on-facts/ar-BBQaiNl?li=BBnb7Kz

White House: Federal climate change report 'not based on facts'
Steven Nelson  7 hrs ago

White House press secretary Sarah Sanders denounced a new climate-change report as "not data driven" and "not based on facts," sharpening the Trump administration's repudiation of the document crafted by 13 federal agencies.

Sanders denounced the National Climate Assessment during a Tuesday press briefing, defending President Trump's publicly expressed doubt about its warning of potentially severe ocean-level rises and associated economic costs.

"You have to look at the fact that this report is based on the most extreme modeled scenario, which contradicts long-established trends," Sanders said. "Modeling the climate is an extremely complicated science that is never exact."

much more at link

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

actual report if you want to read it

[PDF]Report - IPCC
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/session48/pr_181008_P48_spm_en.pdf
Oct 8, 2018 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said on Monday. The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC was approved by the ...

[PDF]Report - IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf
An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C ..... Several regional changes in climate are assessed to occur with global warming up.

.................................

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/27/us/politics/climate-report-fact-check.html
By Linda Qiu
Nov. 27, 2018

FACT CHECK OF THE DAY

The Baseless Claim That Climate Scientists Are 'Driven' by Money
Critics of a major United States climate report, including the president and conservative pundits, have dismissed its findings with several inaccurate claims.

WHAT WAS SAID

"The reality is that a lot of these scientists are driven by the money that they receive. And, of course, they don't receive money from corporations and Exxon and the like."

— Rick Santorum, the former Republican senator from Pennsylvania, in remarks on CNN on Sunday

"The report is nothing more than a rehash of age-old 10- to 20-year assumptions made by scientists that get paid to further the politics of global warming."

— Tom DeLay, Republican of Texas who was the former House majority leader, in in remarks on CNN on Monday

THE FACTS

This lacks evidence.
The federal government's most recent climate change report, released last week, warned that global warming could cause substantial damage to the American economy, human health and the environment. The report has prompted some critics to dismiss climate scientists as corrupted by money, a common but baseless attack.

"We were paid zero dollars to produce the national assessment," Katharine Hayhoe, an author of the report, said in an interview. "In fact, there was a reverse financial motive."

Researchers working in climate change do not receive atypically large paychecks, nor do they strike it rich from grants. The claim also ignores that internal research from oil companies affirms the scientific consensus on climate change.

Professors at public universities who teach earth sciences and environmental studies generally earn more than their peers in humanities and social sciences, but less than faculty in the economics, business and law departments, according to data from the Association of American Universities.

continues at link

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https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/most-chilling-parts-2018-climate-assessment/576598/

The Three Most Chilling Conclusions From the Climate Report
Thirteen federal agencies agree: Climate change has already wreaked havoc on the United States, and the worst is likely yet to come.

RACHEL GUTMAN
NOV 26, 2018

On Friday afternoon, the U.S. government published a major and ominous climate report. Despite being released on a holiday, when it seemed the smallest number of people would be paying attention, the latest installment of the National Climate Assessment is, as told to my colleague Robinson Meyer, full of "information that every human needs."

Read: A grave climate warning, buried on Black Friday

The report traces the effects climate change has already wrought upon every region of the United States, from nationwide heat waves to dwindling snowpacks in the West. In blunt and disturbing terms, it also envisions the devastation yet to come.

The document's dire claims, backed by 13 federal agencies, come frequently into conflict with the aims of the administration that released it. Where the Trump administration has sought to loosen restrictions on car emissions, the report warns that vehicles are contributing to unhealthy ozone levels that affect nearly a third of Americans. Whereas the president has ensured that the United States will no longer meet the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement on climate change, the report says that ignoring Paris could accelerate coral bleaching in Hawaii by more than a decade.

also continues at link