Real World Probabilities of Extraterrestrials on Earth

[Anthra]

We do all understand, I hope, that "FTL" is not required to visit other star systems.

[andolin]

We do all understand, I hope, that "FTL" is not required to visit other star systems.

Hell no...But it helps...At least until we catch up to all the time travelers and inter-dimensional gate jumpers that are allegedly out there...Plenty of threads on this board about methods and theories for FTL travel...as well as some interesting ones on more domestic </=SOL star system travel..
I'm still waiting for them to set up a Jump Room (Teleportation Gate) in my neighborhood so I can visit Scotland, I don't even want to leave the planet.
Andy

[Anthra]

While FTL is a very great help, it is not a requirement for interstellar travel.

Earth, for instance, has several stars that are within reasonable travel if a suitable non-ftl drive is used. Alpha Centauri, Sirius, and Tau Ceti are all within 12 light years, Alpha Centauri and Tau Ceti are "G" class stars at least 4.6 Gyr old, making the very good candidates for life forms not unlike Terestrials.

In 2003 and 2006 scientists in Europe successfully created artificial gravity, and "directed" its vector, thus providing "thrust". In these two expirements it was shown that "field drive" systems are possible, changing the rules and requirements for high-end space drive systems.

There are several theories on FTL, but, few it seems on a possible component of FTL; "Time dilation offset." Relativeity tells us that as we near the speed of light time changes. What is happening is that the "local clock" for a "moving object" appears to change, thus a trip of just a few years at the speed of light can take many tiems longer in the "stationary" universe.

In classical "warp drive" theory we are shown a system that compresses space / time in front of the craft, and expands it behind. If we look at conventional "doppler" theory, and mechanics we see something rather similar happening with sound, and light; it seems reasonable that this also happens with space/time. Thus just moving quickly enough through space / time may give rise to mild space / time warping, altering the theoretical effects of time dilation. Also, by using a gravety field drive the amount of "warping" may be increased.

There is also an effect known as "quantum frame dragging". This is an effect where the "time frame" one is currently in, is held onto for very short periods of time. This has the effect of appearing to alter the "local clock", offsetting the effects of time dilation.

Both of these effects are, for the most part, passive, and are the result of a large "gravity field" moving at very high speed. This is an almost ideal method to generate a "low level FTL" system as it is simple, and already exists. It also requires a dramatically smaller amount of energy that other systems being proposed.

[The Matrix Traveller]

Yes, Human understanding on the constraints, but then thats all we have.

True.... but is not much to rely upon is it ?

[Anthra]

True.... but is not much to rely upon is it ?

While it might not seem like much, Terrestrial knowledge and expirence provides a rather good foundation upon which to build. And, since One simply can not "stop" in their searches the extent, depth, and reliability of Terrestrial knowledge can only grow.

Also, if One is attempting to do scientific research any starting point is better than none.

Its interesting; I've asked this same question other places and seem to get the same sort of reaction; "Hw can we even compute the odds probabilities, we don't know enough." Its almost as if people were afraid of the question. But, really, it is only a number, one that isn't really likely to be very accurate (it will prolly be way to small), and all it indicates is a probability, not an actual reality; so there is nothing to be afraid of 

The importance of a "ball park" estimation of the probabilities of ET actually being on Earth is significant, and provides Terrestrials an opportunity unlike any other in Terrestrial history to learn about an aspect of interstellar society that has not presented itself in at least 5000 - 8000 years. In One's head-long rush toward knowledge and understanding all avenues must be explored.

[PLAYSWITHMACHINES]

Interesting thread

The thing is this; Our biologists tell us that most intelligent life will be humaniform.

Also, if a 'G' class star has a planet exactly like Earth, but 1000 years older, then statistically (based on our own history) that civilisation will be 1000 years more advanced than us, right?

And any civilisation that has mastered inter-galactic space would yawn at our definition of 'light years' LOL
These would be what i call 'Type 2 or 3 civilisations'

We are just emerging from Type 0 (planetary) to type 1 (interplanetary) to give you a clue.

[Anthra]

Interesting thread

The thing is this; Our biologists tell us that most intelligent life will be humaniform.

I prefer the somewhat more mundane term: Humanoid. However, according to some reports, some ET's are full-on Human

Also, if a 'G' class star has a planet exactly like Earth, but 1000 years older, then statistically (based on our own history) that civilisation will be 1000 years more advanced than us, right?

I think it is a bit more difficult than that. We know "G" class stars support Human life forms, and that stars as young as 4.6 Gyr can have space faring life, but I'm not sure the above would hold.

And any civilisation that has mastered inter-galactic space would yawn at our definition of 'light years' LOL
These would be what i call 'Type 2 or 3 civilisations'

We are just emerging from Type 0 (planetary) to type 1 (interplanetary) to give you a clue.

LOL! Sorry man but you are way over estimating ET! Also your "civilization types" are little more than a convenient obfuscation of Terrestrial Human's true relation with the cosmos. And, no "inter-galactic" ET's needed, These probabilities would only apply to the local area (say radius 50ly)
I don't need a clue, but consider; Terrestrial technology has been held back at least twice; 1. Government. Rome/Ceaser decided to put steam power on the back shelf because it would disrupt slave trade ecconomy, 2. the Church tried to quash all forms of scientific search for hundreds of years, all in the name of retaining a kind of "false" power.

Despite these setbacks, today, you have the technology to build field drive systems that can take you atleast 15 light years in a comfortable trip (25 years).

The thing is; ET does not have to be uber advaced, as little as 25 years is all ET truly needs. (Again, you have all the parts, you only need to asseble them)

[robomont]

if i could get a hundred bucks from ten members we could build a prototype of the mercury engine.
maybe even fifty from twenty would do it.
any takers?

i will start it by saying ill pitch in a hundred and volunteer to manage construction.
how about it guys?
this offer will expire in 60days.

[The Seeker]

robomont, it might push the envelope to get 10 bucks from a hundred members in this current paradigm...


seeker

[thorfourwinds]

...
any takers?

i will start it by saying i'll pitch in a hundred and volunteer to manage construction

The project has an Outstanding Construction Manager and I match that $100.

[The Matrix Traveller]

There are other methods of exploring this Program (Universe) still not discovered through the human species.

"Energy based Propulsion Systems" are NOT the answer.

Gaining access to and understanding the Processing System which presents all is far more productive.

Think of your universe or experience like to that of a highly Sophisticated Multiplayer "1st Person Video game".
Where the Real You, a "Partition" of LIFE, experience both your body and Environment.




and interact as though in a huge "network", involving Mind or LIFE(Nothing to do with the Brain).

When you discover WHAT is producing your individual experience, then you will see things
in another way... 

You are Correct in that religion, does attempt to inhibit "Scientific knowledge"...

But there is "human based Science" and there is "Technologies" of the Mind or LIFE.
(Nothing at all to do with the Brain)

"Human based Science", believes LIFE is a biological function... which is so far from the truth
it's not even funny any more.

Hell even the Dictionary definition is incorrect !

Not surprisingly though....   


It's just that the "human Species" can't accept that LIFE, is Not their body... or their body is Not LIFE!

LIFE experiences the body, Not the other way around.

LIFE itself, experiences the human primate as well as other species, & environment such species
interact with.

So we have What is being experienced...
and
We have What is experiencing...

Totally different Components...   

So either human based Science is looking for Biological functions in their universe experience,
or they are looking for LIFE which is nowhere in this universe but exists outside the Program/s.

So basically at present it is NOT understood by many, what LIFE actually is.

There are those even in "human based Science", actively trying to discover this today.

And you are Correct at present you only have this avenue to work with, until you discover LIFE
and what it really is... 

[robomont]

if theres a money trust issue maybe z would help on that end.
i could post a vid of the company assembling and welding it with a phone number for verification.a legit business.

then i could video receipts .
then i could video the live test.
big explosion or flight.
a first real pegasus experiment on youtube.
i bet we would get new members then.
any leftover moneys could be returned or donated to pegasus.
thankyou tfw for stepping up.i dont want to hijack this thread so ill start another.

[zorgon]

I prefer the somewhat more mundane term: Humanoid. However, according to some reports, some ET's are full-on Human

Okay lets look at that from two points of view..

a) Evolution.  We can see by observation that the ability to build things requires certain features and thus a huminoid form does seem to fit the best natural selection to manipulate the environments. Dolphins may be arguably more intelligent that humans but they are not built physically in a form that allows them to change their environment

b) Religion.  IF there is a God that created Us in His image.... then it follows that there would be more of Us scatterwed around the infinite Universe

Either way.. I am sure there are many humans out there as we recognize them

These probabilities would only apply to the local area (say radius 50ly)

Once Upon a Tyme.....  The NASA Lords told us there were no other planets. Now they reveal to us that there are several star systems within that 50 LY radius. In fact one is only 20.5 LYs away and has 6 known planets, 3 about earth size and in the same habitable zones as Earth Mars and Venus

What will the great NASA Lords tell us tomorrow?

I don't need a clue, but consider; Terrestrial technology has been held back at least twice; 1. Government. Rome/Ceaser decided to put steam power on the back shelf because it would disrupt slave trade ecconomy, 2. the Church tried to quash all forms of scientific search for hundreds of years, all in the name of retaining a kind of "false" power.

Quite true  and today it is held back a third time... Black Ops 

Despite these setbacks, today, you have the technology to build field drive systems that can take you atleast 15 light years in a comfortable trip (25 years).

Yes... we DO  I have a sketch of a Star Drive... I wonder if the PRC team can make it work



In an  article written by Tom Keller, an aerospace engineer who has worked as a computer systems analyst for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, about Ben Rich and statements he made before his death...

"Inside the Skunk Works (Lockheed's secret research and development entity), we were a small, intensely cohesive group consisting of about fifty veteran engineers and designers and a hundred or so expert machinists and shop workers. Our forte was building technologically advanced airplanes of small number and of high class for highly secret missions."

"We already have the means to travel among the stars, but these technologies are locked up in black projects, and it would take an act of God to ever get them out to benefit humanity. Anything you can imagine, we already know how to do."

"We now have the technology to take ET home. No, it won't take someone's lifetime to do it. There is an error in the equations. We know what it is. We now have the capability to travel to the stars. First, you have to understand that we will not get to the stars using chemical propulsion. Second, we have to devise a new propulsion technology. What we have to do is find out where Einstein went wrong."

When Rich was asked how UFO propulsion worked, he said, "Let me ask you. How does ESP work?"

The questioner responded with, "All points in time and space are connected?"

Rich then said, "That's how it works!"

Ben Rich Lockheed Former Director

The above words I have repeated many times. They are the basis of all my research and subsequently all my insider contacts. If it wasn't for those statements and others sincwe then to back it up, I would have given up years ago.

Yet people still dilly dally and dance around the obvious.... Perhaps because Greer picked up and used these words for his own personal gain they are less valuable... but then Greer is a reptilian disinfo agent

The thing is; ET does not have to be uber advaced, as little as 25 years is all ET truly needs. (Again, you have all the parts, you only need to asseble them)

Tesla had the patent for a working saucer over 100 years ago. Otis Car duplicated it but could only patent an 'amusement ride'

[Anthra]

Okay lets look at that from two points of view..

a) Evolution. 
b) Religion. 

Once Upon a Tyme.....  The NASA Lords told us there were no other planets. Now they reveal to us that there are several star systems within that 50 LY radius. In fact one is only 20.5 LYs away and has 6 known planets, 3 about earth size and in the same habitable zones as Earth Mars and Venus

What will the great NASA Lords tell us tomorrow?

In my research I have looked at what I call "Urban Exoscience"; the body of myth and legend surrounds the UFO and ET culture. Within this there are ample "stories" about a small army of different species (57 or so). As it turns out, if we pare down the list by removing creatures that are known in other "mundane" myth / legend, can be shown to be of terrestrial origin, or is a variant of a known or already hypothesized species, we arrive at a list that is short and can be exlained / predicted by the very star system they are suosedly associated with. For instance the Zeta Reticulis; Zeta 2 Reticuli is a class "G1.5" star some 3+ Gyr old. This pair of stars is a little hard on the "age" value. It was once said they were 8 - 11Gyr, then it was revised to 1.5 - 3Gyr. As is usually the case with measurement science; successive aproximations will eventually determine the real age. I'm thinking ore on the order of 5Gyr or so.

I originally set the distance limit to 50ly because it does not require significantly advanced technology to operate in a volume that large, and while that might be a bit too far for Earth right now,it prolly isn't for soe of the others that must be out there.

Quite true  and today it is held back a third time... Black Ops 

Yes, and its for ths same ole reason . . . Lusting after false security, weath, and power. One wuld think that after 6000 years of struggle the idot PTB wuld give in. Guess they are as bad in that regard as I am (I ain't giv'n up on my fight ever).

Yes... we DO  I have a sketch of a Star Drive... I wonder if the PRC team can make it work

Yet people still dilly dally and dance around the obvious.... Perhaps because Greer picked up and used these words for his own personal gain they are less valuable... but then Greer is a reptilian disinfo agent

Tesla had the patent for a working saucer over 100 years ago. Otis Car duplicated it but could only patent an 'amusement ride'

I'm not sure that I'm familiar with Tesla's work in this area, if you could point me in the right direction please?

I too am working toward building a "proof of concept" for a drive system based on this: http://www.hpcc-space.de/publications/documents/LauncherSymPaper2007-0-42.pdf

The system generates artificial gravity along a specific axis, allowing it to be used as a kind of "thrust". A system like this should be capable of super luminal speeds without the need for insane amounts of energy.

Well now, I'm not so sure about associating Greer with Reptilians. I know the man is a snake, but the people of Sigma Draconis are likely far too civilized to be interested in the likes of Greer. Sigma Draconis: "G9", 4.7Gyr old. Yeah, I'm thinking the Draconins are far too civilized and refined to be associated with the likes of Greer, but, he is a whole new species of "Snake" to be sure 
(I know the reptilians are supposed to be from Alpha Draconis, but, Alpha Draconis is 300 ly away, too far I think. Sigma Draconis is 18ly, a "G9", and 4.7Gyr old . . . perfect!)