Winter 2012- Most Extreme Configuration of the Jet Stream Ever Recorded

[burntheships]

    Remarkably Dry and Warm Winter Due to "Most Extreme Configuration of the Jet Stream Ever Recorded"

December 2011 has brought a jet stream pattern the most extreme on record.

Well, by now I imagine most of us are keenly aware of the unusual weather.

We could go on for days about that. Its one thing to say "hey what about this extreme weather"?

Finally to see that this is record breaking weather due to drastic changes
in the Jet Stream, and the Artic Oscillation, and not merely a hundred year record.

Of course, its right on time for this Weather Phenomena,
after all its now offically 2012!



And last year brought us some catastrophic weather, record
breaking natural disasters.

This leaves me wondering what is coming our way now?

Aside from the obvious extreme drought conditions that are to befall many
regions of the United States, California is experiencing the dryest Winter on record - EVER.

California being the bread basket of the world...this is going to be a game changer
for sure, not just those in The United States, but world wide.

Ok, enough of speculation...onto the facts.

The jet stream controls winter weather, but strange forces are controlling the jet stream this season  Scentific American

The chief suspect behind the mysterious weather is an atmospheric pressure pattern called the Arctic Oscillation, which circles the high Northern Hemisphere. Its lower edge is known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Together, the related features influence the path and strength of the jet stream.Scentific American 

...the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (which can be thought of as the North Atlantic's portion of the larger-scale AO), are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure in the North Atlantic between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The AO and NAO have significant impacts on winter weather in North America and Europe–the AO and NAO affect the path, intensity, and shape of the jet stream, influencing where storms track and how strong these storms become.  

During December 2011, the NAO index was +2.52, which was the most extreme difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores ever observed in December (records of the NAO go back to 1865.) The AO during December 2011 had its second most extreme December value on record, behind the equally unusual December of 2006. These positive AO/NAO conditions caused the Icelandic Low to draw a strong south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward over the U.S. and Europe.  Think Progress

The December Arctic Oscillation (AO) index has fluctuated wildly over the past six years, with the two most extreme positive and two most extreme negative values on record. Image credit: NOAA/Climate Prediction Center.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_oscillation

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2010

This extreme weather comes on the heels of record snowfalls in 2010.

Conversely, December 2010 set record snowfalls in many parts of the U.S. Sure enough, the NAO at that time had some of the lowest pressures ever observed, allowing the jet stream to move south and stay there. Arctic air descended, picked up moisture or interacted with warm fronts, and dropped snow. "The December Arctic Oscillation index has fluctuated wildly over the past six years," Masters notes, "with the two most extreme positive and two most extreme negative values on record."

Two of the most extreme positive and extreme negative values on record....




Chart Courtesy of NOAA http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1831

Global departure of precipitation over land areas from average for 1900 - 2010.
The year 2010 set a new record for wettest year over land areas in Earth's recorded history.



The jet stream has been locked in that position by the NAO for most of the winter...
sustained the largest pressure gradient since tracking began in 1865.

Some scientists are speculating that its due to the Solar Cycles,
sunspot activity, which was very low in December 2010 and very high during December 2011.


http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=sunspot-cycle

A small map showing the unheard of weather pattern




A sudden shut down of this current would have a ripple effect throughout the ocean-atmosphere system, forcing worldwide changes in ocean currents, and in the path of the atmospheric jet stream.

Current theories on the cause of abrupt climatic change focus on sudden shut downs and start-ups of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) (also referred to as the thermohaline circulation), which is a global network of density-driven ocean currents. The Meridional Overturning Circulation transports a tremendous amount of heat northward, keeping the North Atlantic and much of Europe up to 9°F (5°C) warmer, particularly in the winter. A sudden shut down of this current would have a ripple effect throughout the ocean-atmosphere system, forcing worldwide changes in ocean currents, and in the path of the atmospheric jet stream. Studies of North Atlantic Ocean sediments have revealed that the Meridional Overturning Circulation has shut down many times in the past, and that many of these shut downs coincide with the abrupt climate change events noted in the Greenland ice cores. http://www.wunderground.com/resources/climate/abruptclimate.asp 

[sky otter]

BTS

i've read a few different things about the jet stream going out of existence...

but this jumped out at me as..pole shift

Studies of North Atlantic Ocean sediments have revealed that the Meridional Overturning Circulation has shut down many times in the past, and that many of these shut downs coincide with the abrupt climate change events noted in the Greenland ice cores.

[burntheships]

I really am a bit wide eyed myself, and your news snippet is right on.
Just as the North Atlantic Current went under drastic changes in 2010,
we could see the with the MOC as well.

If that happens hold on for dear life.

I was hoping to find some more relevant info on this, its not easy
to locate so far. Hopefully others can find stuff and toss into the ring
so we can keep track of this extreme weather changes.

[Captain Dave]

I had been monitoring comet 2005YU55 November 8th 9th & 10th 2011 as it passed and this is what happened immediately after it passed... Had major storms in Alaska right afterwards too. Looks to me like that would throw the Jetstream/Tradewinds off.

[Captain Dave]

I had been monitoring comet 2005YU55 November 8th 9th & 10th 2011 as it passed within 201,700 miles of Earth and this is what happened immediately after it passed... Had major storms in Alaska right afterwards too. Looks to me like that would throw the Jetstream/Tradewinds off.

Looks to me like it created a "wake" in space? So an object traveling at a specific speed within space, disrupts and or displaces space leaving a "hole" behind it? Hmm that's cool. 

[burntheships]

Captn Dave,

Thats very interesting observation, I had read where some scientists
think there is a correlation of Sunspot activity, yet this is a new idea
at least to me, it makes sense!

[Captain Dave]

Captn Dave,

Thats very interesting observation, I had read where some scientists
think there is a correlation of Sunspot activity, yet this is a new idea
at least to me, it makes sense!

Burntheships-
I'm sure one specific thing isn't causing all the different anomalies, as there are so many factors working together - ie Geomagnetic storms, Human made heat, Pollution, Earthquakes, Volcanoes Etc...

I do know what I saw when Asteroid 2005YU55 whizzed past at tremendous speed, and to me there's no way it wasn't a player. ( Just like I'm sure it was no accident that comet Elenin broke up before it got here. ) Apparently "someone" is looking out for us. (* Unsung Hero's *)

If we look at the "bigger picture", the Earth is just a machine and we aren't keeping up with the maintenance aspects. We should all know by now what happens when we don't maintain things.

To gain the "Intellectual evolution" needed to work together as a Planet and fix these problems, we really need Worldwide Online Free education. Education allows misunderstandings to become understandings. Thats probably the only way we'll ever receive the Full Disclosure so many are seeking so diligently.

[The Seeker]

Hi BTS; interesting article; makes one think of the movie " The Day After Tomorrow" and the scientific principles behind it, the desalination of the salty ocean water and the cessation of the Atlantic current ...

there are numerous theories behind the rather extreme weather  of late, tying to either sunspots or the lack thereof, the weakening of the earth's magnetic field, etc,. and I am open to the possibility that Capt. Dave proposed about the (for lack of a better phrase) 'wake' of a comet having some affect on our weather patterns...

much to ponder...


seeker

[sky otter]

 
i thought this might fit here because of this statement

Survey data could improve forecasts of the region's future, and also show how likely it is that the flow of warm water in the North Atlantic, known as the Gulf Stream, will switch off.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12279028
25 January 2011 Last updated at 19:16 ET Share this pageEmail Print Share this page

By Richard Black...Environment correspondent, BBC News

Scientists and explorers will shortly set off on an expedition aiming to discover how Arctic sea ice melts.

This year's Catlin Arctic Survey will focus on the thin layer of water immediately under the floating ice.

Arctic ice is melting faster in summer than many computer models predict.

Survey data could improve forecasts of the region's future, and also show how likely it is that the flow of warm water in the North Atlantic, known as the Gulf Stream, will switch off.

This would bring colder weather to the UK and other parts of western Europe.

Continue reading the main story
"
Start Quote
If these changes... contribute to a lowering of the salt content of the North Atlantic, it could have a major impact on the entire planet "
End Quote
Richard Zimmerman

Old Dominion University
"The Arctic is one of best barometers of climate change, where we see big changes taking place today," said Simon Boxall from the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) at the UK's University of Southampton.

"This is not just about polar bears - it's about our lives in the UK and in North America."

In early March, four explorers will set off on foot from the geographic North Pole, trekking across the ice and ending up 10 weeks later in Greenland.

They will make regular stops to drill holes through the floating ice and lower a package of instruments into the water on the end of a piece of rope - instruments that measure the water's temperature, salinity and flow.

This data will allow scientists to calculate the rate at which the water is sinking.

Salty seas

"We're measuring the critical 200m layer of water between the ice and the deep ocean beneath," said Dr Boxall, who conceived the project.

"The hypothesis has been that the layer stays there, trapped, acting to insulate the cold ice from the warm salty water below.

"On the other hand, the water might be taken away more quickly - and that might accelerate the rate of Arctic melting."

Even in the era of Earth observation satellites and automonous ocean floats, the old-fashioned approach - sending people across the ice to take readings by hand - is really the only one available for this kind of work, he noted.

The findings could prove to be crucial in terms of projecting the future for Arctic sea ice.

Both the area and volume of summer sea ice are steadily shrinking; and the last four summers have seen ice extent fall to sizes that a few years ago were being projected for the latter half of this century.

If mixing in the crucial top ocean layer is happening more, that could help explain the trend and refine models, Dr Boxall said.

The project could also improve forecasts on the climate of western Europe, and much further afield.


Hardened explorers rather than scientists are needed for this work
The North Atlantic Drift (commonly called the Gulf Stream) brings warm water from the tropics into northern latitudes, where it gives up some of its heat to the air - keeping the UK and neighbouring countries warmer than their latitude alone would suggest.

In colder regions north and west of the UK, winds whip water molecules from the sea, cooling it and making it more saline.

In cold seasons, a layer of ice forms, which again adds to the water's salinity.

The cold salty water sinks, and eventually returns southward deep in the ocean, forming part of the global thermohaline circulation (THC).

As it sinks, it draws the warm surface waters northwards.


The global thermohaline circulation takes warm and cold water across the oceans
Warmer and fresher water does not sink so readily; and this could could turn off the "ocean conveyor", a picture painted in heightened Hollywood colour in the movie The Day After Tomorrow.

"Overall, if these changes... contribute to a lowering of the salt content of the North Atlantic, it could have a major impact on the entire planet - from significant temperature drops in Europe to intensified monsoons in Asia," said Richard Zimmerman, a bio-optics specialist at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia, US.

Suggest additions
Glossary in full"It may also impact weather patterns throughout North America, including a dramatic increase in the frequency and intensity of severe storms, including hurricanes and tornadoes across the eastern US."

Recent work at NOC suggests it would be a quick change - if it happens.

It would be likely to cool the UK's climate, with the sort of winter seen in the last three years becoming the norm.

While the four explorers trek across the sea ice, scientists encamped on Ellef Ringnes Island off the north coast of Greenland will sample seawater and ice for coloured dissolved organic materials (CDOM), which affect the ocean's absorption of sunlight.

"We'll be taking ice core sections and melting them, filtering and measuring particulates and the CDOM fraction within melted ice, and measuring algae," said Victoria Hill, also from Old Dominion University.

Results from the season's work are expected to be ready for publication in science journals in the first half of next year.

This is the Catlin Arctic Survey's third season, with ongoing projects focussing on ocean acidification - another consequence of having more CO2 in the atmosphere.

The £1m project is directed by explorer Pen Hadow and sponsored by the Catlin insurance group.
More on This Story
Related Stories

[Amaterasu]

Not sure what the general thoughts here are about HAARP...  But that is what first jumped into MY mind...  LOL!

Still, I like the comet theory, too.

[Captain Dave]

Most of the 1500 or so Desalination plants along the coasts of the World are not separating the salt and retaining it as fresh water is made, instead the excess salt is being fed directly back into the Ocean. Thus the waters in these areas are increasing in salt content.

If during the desalination process, the excess salt was fed off and captured, it could then be transferred to these areas lacking in salt. ( The Ocean is just a big salt water aquarium and aquariums need salt added periodically to balance things. )

Designing a system that would only recapture a certain percentage of the excess salt shouldn't be too difficult and would mainly involve designing different semi-permiable membranes and a pump/feed/diversion system.

Graphene as a material might be able to do the job in the semi-permiable membrane dept.

In this case, we would be "killing two birds with one stone" so to speak - win- win.

So who do you tell stuff like that too? ( If anybody knows who to suggest that too, please do.  )

[sky otter]

well speaking of birds....

what does it say when the most northern of creatures are moving southward?
years ago i was out riding in a foggy feb mist and was awestruck to see one of these
just sitting in a stand of trees...so i can only imagine what seeing more than one would be like
the canadian geese have stopped going back years  ago and  are now year round residents
hum.. the critters know.

Arctic snowy owls soar south in rare mass move
Competition for food is sending young males into lower 48 states

SALMON, Idaho — Bird enthusiasts are reporting rising numbers of snowy owls from the Arctic winging into the lower 48 states this winter in a mass southern migration that a leading owl researcher called "unbelievable."

Thousands of the snow-white birds, which stand 2 feet tall with 5-foot wingspans, have been spotted from coast to coast, feeding in farmlands in Idaho, roosting on rooftops in Montana, gliding over golf courses in Missouri and soaring over shorelines in Massachusetts.

A certain number of the iconic owls fly south from their Arctic breeding grounds each winter but rarely do so many venture so far away even amid large-scale, periodic southern migrations known as irruptions.

"What we're seeing now — it's unbelievable," said Denver Holt, head of the Owl Research Institute in Montana.

"This is the most significant wildlife event in decades," added Holt, who has studied snowy owls in their Arctic tundra ecosystem for two decades.

Holt and other owl experts say the phenomenon is likely linked to lemmings, a rodent that accounts for 90 percent of the diet of snowy owls during breeding months that stretch from May into September. The largely nocturnal birds also prey on a host of other animals, from voles to geese.

An especially plentiful supply of lemmings last season likely led to a population boom among owls that resulted in each breeding pair hatching as many as seven offspring. That compares to a typical clutch size of no more than two, Holt said.

Greater competition this year for food in the Far North by the booming bird population may have then driven mostly younger, male owls much farther south than normal.

Research on the animals is scarce because of the remoteness and extreme conditions of the terrain the owls occupy, including northern Russia and Scandinavia, he said.

The surge in snowy owl sightings has brought birders flocking from Texas, Arizona and Utah to the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, pouring tourist dollars into local economies and crowding parks and wildlife areas. The irruption has triggered widespread public fascination that appears to span ages and interests.



A snowy owl clings to a powerline near Lake Andes, S.D., on Jan. 4. "For the last couple months, every other visitor asks if we've seen a snowy owl today," said Frances Tanaka, a volunteer for the Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge northeast of Olympia, Washington.

But accounts of emaciated owls at some sites — including a food-starved bird that dropped dead in a farmer's field in Wisconsin — suggest the migration has a darker side. And Holt said an owl that landed at an airport in Hawaii in November was shot and killed to avoid collisions with planes.

He said snowy owl populations are believed to be in an overall decline, possibly because a changing climate has lessened the abundance of vegetation like grasses that lemmings rely on.

This winter's snowy owl outbreak, with multiple sightings as far south as Oklahoma, remains largely a mystery of nature.

"There's a lot of speculation. As far as hard evidence, we really don't know," Holt said.

Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46180562/ns/us_news-environment/